(Teleborsa) – Confindustria has revised Italy’s growth forecasts upwards, thanks to the stronger-than-expected GDP trend recorded in the first six months of the year, although contagions and the scarcity of some commodities remain factors of uncertainty.
Household consumption is in strong recovery, recording a solid performance in the 2nd quarter (+12 billion, equal to + 5%), driven by spending on services (travel and out-of-home expenses). The expectations for the 3rd quarter I’m largely positive: approximately half of the extra savings accumulated by families during the lockdown remains to be spent, which in the spring the Centro Studi Confindustria had estimated at 26 billion.
On the production side, industry is giving way to services in dragging up the Italian GDP, the Confindustria Studies Center notes, indicating that after the strong rebound of PIL in the 2nd quarter (+ 2.7%), in the 3rd quarter the main indicators are holding up, despite the effects of the scarcity of some raw materials and semi-finished products and the resumption of infections. Remains a lot of uncertainty for the 4th quarter, linked to the continuation of the epidemic, but the 2021 it might close with a recovery close to + 6%.
The occupation is recovering, in the wake of the economic recovery. Inflation also rose in Italy, (+ 2.1% per annum in August), but almost only for the increase in energy prices (+ 19.8%), in the wake of the rise in oil prices in recent months. The +
inflation excluding energy and food is low (+ 0.6%), indicating that domestic pressures are moderate. So far, the Italian consumer prices do not read an impact of the increase in the prices of non-energy commodities, nor of their scarcity. This helps consumption, but compresses business margins.
Italian exports remain healthy (+ 0.4% in June and + 0.7% compared to pre-crisis levels) – underlines CSC – but the athese are more uncertain, because the Eurozone is slowing down and prospects are less solid in the US as well: the PMI signals expansion, but in July-August the opinions of businesses declined slightly. This reflects the lower expansion of world trade which, after returning to growth in June (+ 0.5%), sees a slowdown in the summer signaled by the global PMI.
The Eurozone is slowing down, with industrial production decreased in June (-0.3%), mainly due to the third consecutive decline in the German one (-1.3%), which then rose again in July (+ 1%). The recent worsening of the Sentix indices (investor confidence), to 19.6 points in September from 22.2 and above all Zew (German business confidence), to 31.1 from 42.7, signals a slowdown in activity in 3 Th quarter.
Less solid prospects in the US where the 2nd quarter GDP (+ 6.6% annualized) did worse than expected. This slight disappointment – explains the report – is consistent with the worsening of indicators, on the business side (manufacturing PMI to 61.1 from 63.4; Chicago Purchasing Managers to 66.8 from 73.4; economic activity indices of the FED down) and that of consumers (University of Michigan index at 70.3 from 81.2). The manufacturing ISM is an exception (59.9 from 59.5). The slowdown in industry already seen in July (+ 6.6% annually from + 9.9%) could intensify in the following months.