(Teleborsa) – Italian exports will experience 2021 as a year of “transition” characterized by a strong rebound in the global economy after the shock caused by the pandemic crisis. The export of Made in Italy is therefore expected to grow in 2021 and in the following years, but the recovery will be “patchy” with varying intensity in the various markets: faster in some markets, of mere recovery in others and slower recovery in still others.
This is what emerges from the Export Report 2021 of the SACE Research Department, now in its 15th edition and entitled “Back to the future: anatomy of a post-pandemic recovery”. Present at the event, in addition to the top management of SACE, Rodolfo Error e Pierfrancesco Latini, some of the main institutional and business stakeholders, such as the Minister of Economy Daniele Franco, the Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio and, among the exponents of the business world, the CEO of Enel Francesco Starace, the Vice President of Ghella Federico Ghella and the President of Poste Italiane and ANIA Maria Bianca Farina.
“We are recovering the strongest drop in output since the war, but the uncertainties of the economy are linked to the progress of the pandemic”, recalled the Minister Daniele Franco, emphasizing the importance of vaccinations. With regard to the PNRR, the owner of the Economy stated that “it does not solve all the country’s problems by itself” and “we need to maintain all the other financial support tools” including the role of SACE.
“Export and Made in Italy, which have always been essential resources for the Italian economy, have always played a crucial role as an accelerator for the growth and development of our entrepreneurial fabric”, recalled the President of SACE. Rodolfo Error, envisaging a recovery in Italy’s foreign sales and citing the positive impacts of the PNRR.
In this regard, the CEO Pierfrancesco Latini he stated “The objective that we must give ourselves with the PNRR, is clear: it must not only be to return to pre-crisis levels, but above all to overcome them, bridging those structural gaps, to allow Italy to regain its right weight in the global market “.
Of “Back to the future” of exports the economist spoke Alessandro Terzulli, presenting this edition of the SACE Report, which is proposed as a “guide” for companies that need to reformulate their strategies and business plans abroad and decipher a “complex” scenario.
A few numbers
Faced with a recovery of 6% of world GDP, SACE estimates an 11.3% rebound in exportsthe Italians of goods in value, aroundthe 482 billion euros, which will allow a full tank already in 2021 return to pre-pandemic levels. To follow, it is expected for 2022 a growth of 5.4% and then continue in bthe following year with average growth 4% per annum.
A rate one point higher than the pre-crisis average rate (+ 3.1% between 2012 and 2019) which will allow for reach the value of 550 billion in 2024 euros of exports of goods. A performance that can also take advantage of the additional demand triggered by the stimulus plans prepared in the US and the EU (Next generation EU).
L’export of services, most affected by the pandemic, will register a only partial recovery in 2021 (+ 5.1%) and the real recovery will take place in 2022 when it will do a jump of 35.1% making at 2019 levels. Growth will continue in following two years at a medium pace 5%, hitting 120 billion euros at the end of the forecast horizon.
Which markets?
The gold medal at the export “Olympics” outlined by SACE goes to the countries where our exports recovered promptly and will remain dynamic in the following years, such as the Germany, the United Statesi, la Swiss and the Japan, but also Russia, Canada, Poland, China, Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
The silver medal of exports goes to countries which, according to SACE forecasts, will return to pre-crisis levels in 2021, then continuing at a slower pace. Among these, France, thanks also to the “Grand Paris Express” project, Netherlands, Brazil, Saudi Arabia thanks also to the infrastructural plans wanted by the crown prince, and again, Malaysia, Chile, Morocco, Senegal, Ghana.
The bronze to countries that in 2021 will not have yet recovered the pre-crisis values, while continuing to maintain positive growth prospects over a broader time horizon. In this category the UK, where the aftermath of Brexit will not allow the pre-crisis levels to be recovered before 2023, India, Peru and Thailand, who are paying for the health impacts of the pandemic and its economic repercussions.
Finally, at the foot of the podium some markets towards which our exports will not recover the pre-crisis levels in 2021 and will record a much more contained growth in the following years due to uncertain political-institutional structures, commercial limitations connected to international sanctioning frameworks as well as obviously the economic, health and social impacts of the pandemic.
The two scenarios …
Due to the persistence of a context of “uncertainty“, The SACE Research Department has elaborated two alternative forecasting scenarios compared to the base scenario: the first assumes a positive shock on global confidence and a more robust recovery; the other pejorative is the lower efficacy of vaccines and the appearance of new variants of Covid-19.
It more “optimistic” scenario assumes the most intense global economic growth, both in 2021 and 2022, and predicts that the value of Italian exports said me in 2021 it would mark + 14.7%, equal to 3.4 percentage points more than in the base scenario and a more pronounced trend in 2022 (+3.7 percentage points). At the end of the forecast horizon, our exports could reach over 577 billion of euro against the 550 foreseen by the baseline.
In the second “worst” scenario, the recovery of the global economy would be slower in 2021. In this scenario, our export growth would be more limited this year (+7,2%) and almost nothing in 2022. The full recovery of Made in Italy sales in foreign markets would be quindi postponed to 2023.
Domino effect of PNRR
The effects of the PNRR they cannot be ignored for the positive effects induced by the construction of new infrastructures, road and rail networks, telecommunications networks, digitalization and simplification in the PA and the ecological transition. For this reason, this year the SACE Export Report also includes economic impacts full implementation of the announced structural reforms
It is estimated that in 2025 the national output would increase by 2.7% compared to the basic model, as a reflection of the push for investments and reforms aimed at increasing productivity with positive repercussions on potential GDP. The exports of assets, in value, in 2025 would be 3.5% higher than to the base scenario.
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