No opening to negotiations, tones that continually rise on both fronts, and the strong doubt that – in a certain sense – the conflict in Ukraine already hides the real ‘final’ battle between Usa e China: all elements which, together with the slow motion of field operations, suggest that the war, unfortunately, will last a long time. At least until 2023, if not beyond.
NATO allies believe that the conflict in Ukraine will continue for the next few months and could last until 2023, according to sources from the White House.
Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains his goal of taking over much of Ukraine’s territory but at the moment Moscow’s military forces have been so weakened by the fighting that they are only able to advance slowly. And this means that the war can last a long time. This is the assessment of the director of US National Intelligence, Avril Hainesso the invasion will go on “for an extended period”.
“We perceive a rift between Putin’s short-term military goals in this region and his military capabilities. A mismatch between his ambitions and what the military is capable of achieving, ”Haines said in a speech at a conference organized by the Department of Commerce.
Putin is in no hurry
The Russian President, at the end of his visit to Ashgabat, where he went for the Summit of the Caspian Seahe reiterated that the operation continues “in a calm and rhythmic manner, the military forces advance and reach the destination points assigned to them as a goal” and that therefore “everything proceeds as planned”.
“There is no need to set a date for the completion of the operation. I never talk about this, since this is how real life is, it’s not okay to confine it to deadlines “, says Putin quoted by the Tass agency, only to point out that this date” is linked to the intensity of combat operations, which a in turn they are linked to potential victims “. “The most important thing to think about is protecting the lives of our kids over there,” he stressed.
The outlook is not positive. Three scenarios: the most likely is a slow-motion conflict, with Russia managing to make “incremental steps but without breaking through.”
Other possibilities include a major achievement by Russia or the stabilization of the front lines, with the Ukrainians managing to advance, albeit only slightly. Each of these three scenarios sees Russia becoming more dependent on “asymmetrical tools” to counter its enemies (cyber attacks, control of energy resources, and even nuclear weapons).