Waiting for a (sharp) braking for the Italian economy. The Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB) has in fact changed its forecasts on the trend of the Italian economy in the two-year period 2022-23.
GDP, Ukraine effect
And if the estimates related to the 2022 improve, passing froml 2.9 last April, to 3.2 per cent, in thanks to the favorable trends in the first half, which benefited from an expansionary budget policy. The forecast for 2023, on the other hand, undergoes a cut of 1.2 percentage points compared to the spring estimates and slips to 0.9 percent.
This is what we read in the August economic note in which it is emphasized that “the negative revision is primarily due to the protracted conflict in Ukraine, which translates into a deterioration in foreign demand and a greater persistence of inflation ”.
the macroeconomic scenario of the Italian economy – we read – appears to be subject to risks of various kinds, especially of an international nature, mainly oriented downwards and with repercussions above all on 2023. The main among these risks is represented by the evolution of the conflict in Ukraine, dits duration and the impact it could have on the prices and availability of raw materials, in particular energy and agricultural materials. In particular, the forecast presented in the Note “does not assume the interruption of gas supplies from Russia in the forecast period; if this event were to materialize, the consequences on the Italian economy would be substantial, both on growth and on inflation.
According to several recent analyzes, both Italian and international, the complete interruption of gas supplies from Russia could lead to a reduction in the growth, up to about four percentage points, with particular reference to 2023; the impact on inflation would be even stronger than that on growth, but in any case it would mainly refer to next year ”.
It is also necessary to consider – writes the UpB – “that the order of magnitude of the effects of a reduction in gas supplies derives from a multiplicity of factors and conditions, of various kinds and difficult to predict; depending on these conditions, some of which are of an institutional and regulatory nature, the effects of a speech shock may vary significantly “.
As for the uncertainty about the prospects of the global economy “it has increased since last spring and the risks are increasingly oriented to discount “.