Arthur Hayes, who sentenced himself and several executives to prison for violating anti-money laundering laws by the US Department of Justice, but postponed this sentence because he surrendered, continues his analysis on his personal blog.
Hayes, who came to the USA after the lawsuit and surrendered and later left his CEO position at BitMEX, made important comments about the Ethereum price.
“In the best scenario, $5,000 may come to its psychological limit”
Referring to the importance of the merge update in Ethereum, Hayes wrote that the peak of about $ 5,000, which was the peak of Ethereum during the period when the Fed “printed money”, was also an important psychological level in this period:
“In November 2021 the Fed was printing money and many ‘shitcoins’ were going up. At that time, interest was slowly starting to come to the merge update in Ethereum. So, I’m going to target myself at the $5,000 psychological barrier, which is the first point Ethere started to decline. That price is my best-case target. Of course, this is a guess that I put on the brakes, because changes due to such supply/demand balances are not usually priced in advance. This is also the case with Bitcoin halvings. Although everyone knows what will happen in advance, it is always priced later. So if the Fed abandons its hawkish policy and the merge is successful, I will put this price in my expectations.”
Hayes, who also wrote in the scenario that the Fed does not take a step back on the money restriction, but the merge update in Ethereum is successful, stated that a price of $ 3500 can be seen in this case.
“I bought an Ethereum options contract for December 2022 at $3,000”
Stating that the derivatives market is currently priced at 44% less, BitMEX ex-CEO stated that according to his model, the ETH/dollar futures contract for March 31, 2023 is $ 2815, but this price is currently $ 1587 on the Deribit exchange, and used the following statements:
“As of August 4, ETH/dollar futures contracts for March 31, 2023 are trading at $1587 on Deribit. According to my model, the futures price is at $2815… So futures markets seem to be priced at as little as 44%. Considering that the contract price for the March 31, 2023 futures contract should be $2815, I preferred to take more risks at both the price and the merge time. I bought 3 thousand dollars from option contracts for December 2022”
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