Not long now more than a week to February 5thday when the embargo will go off on the import of processed petroleum products from Moscow. Maximum alert on the price of diesel today already shot above 1.9 euros per liter in Italian service stations and some time ago reached up to 2.5 euros in some Italian locations. Indeed, Europe will suspend the importation of refined products for a total of approx one million barrels a day and half of these barrels will be of low sulfur diesel (the result of the so-called “sweet” oil) with a high calorific value.
Of course such a scenario it’s no surprise for Europe. In May, Rystad Energy, a Norwegian think tank specializing in strategic sector studies, had launched shortage warning of a European market dependent on Russia. The total demand for diesel and diesel fuel European it positions itself between 6 and 7 million barrels per day, therefore the demand could be impacted by 7-8% from one day to the next in the event of a tender. Europe ran for cover by buying refined products from India, the Middle East and China but at a higher cost.
In terms of addiction Italy until June 2022 it imported diesel from Russia only 5%. Since July, the fee has been completely zeroed. Indeed, the country can count on 13 plants which make the peninsula practically autonomous: in the face of a consumption domestic refined products equal to 55 million tons, we refine almost 71while the theoretical production capacity reaches 88 million tons.
Furthermore, the dependence on Russian diesel, with the resolution of Priolo casewas totally discontinued. If anything, the problem could come from foreign purchase offers. For example from Germany which is 30% dependent from Russian diesel and with a reduced maximum refining capacity (83 million tons) could direct a large part of their purchase offers to Rome, creating a shock to availability on the domestic market.
The European strategy
Il problem so stay at European level where several experts have highlighted the absence of a strategy on oil and on upgrading refining capacity. A limit that consumers across the continent risk paying after the surge in energy prices recorded in recent months they also risk having to pay for a new sting on diesel with all the correlated consequences on transport and the prices of goods traded in the EU.
Read more about the latest decisions taken by the EU on the oil and gas market here.
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