The global economy is confirmed to be slowing down this year, even if the IMF’s forecasts now appear less pessimistic than the report published last October. The says it World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fundreporting a growth of 3.4% for 2022 and a slowdown in 2,9%and then recover to 3,1% in 2024.
“Growth will remain weak by historical standards – it underlines – as the fight against inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine will continue to weigh on activity. Despite these headwinds, the outlook is less gloomy than our October forecast and could represent a turning point, with growth bottoming out and inflation edging back down.”
“China’s sudden reopening paves the way for a rapid rebound in activity. And global financial conditions improved as inflationary pressures began to ease. This, and the weakening of the US dollar from its November high, provided modest relief for emerging and developing countries.
Worse advanced economies
For advanced economies, the slowdown will be more marked, with a drop from 2.7% last year to 1.2% this year and 1.4% next year. Nine out of 10 advanced economies are likely to slow.
US growth will slow to 1.4% in 2023 as Federal Reserve interest rate hikes impact the economy, while euro area conditions are more challenging and expected to hit this year. 0.7%, as the tightening of the ECB’s monetary policy will counterbalance the signs of resilience to the energy crisis and the generous fiscal support.
for theItaliathe Fund anticipates growth of 0.6% this year, after 3.9% in 2022, to then anticipate a slight recovery in 2024 to 0.9%. A clear upward revisionas a contraction of -0.2% was previously estimated for the peninsula in 2023.
Emerging markets and developing economies have already bottomed out. Restrictions and the COVID-19 outbreak in China dampened activity last year and reopenings are now expected to grow at 5.2%. India remains a bright spot and, together with China, will account for half of global growth this year
Inflation slowing but risks remain
As for inflation, it is expected to decline globally this year, but also by 2024, although annual average headline and core inflation is expected to still be above pre-pandemic levels in more than 80% of the countries. villages.
The risks to the economic outlook remain tilted to the downside – concludes the IMF – even if the adverse risks have eased since October and some positive factors have gained relevance. The risks still include the uncertainty about the Chinese recovery and inflation. the war in Ukraine and the possible adverse reactions of the financial markets. Among the positive factors, the solidity of the family economic situation and a solid labor market, as well as the reduction of bottlenecks in the supply chains.
and climate change, or to step up investment in green technologies.
The Italian GDP is growing
Istat communicated that in the fourth quarter of 2022 the gross domestic product (GDP), expressed in chain-linked values with the reference year 2015, corrected for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter and grew by 1.7% in trend terms. Analysts had expected a month-over-month decline of 0.2% and a year-over-year increase of 1.6%.
This is the first slight cyclical downturn after seven consecutive quarters of growth.
The cyclical change is the synthesis of a decrease in added value both in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors, and in that of industry, while services show growth. On the demand side, there is a negative contribution from the national component (gross of inventories) and a positive one from the net foreign component.
In 2022 GDP adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted increased by 3.9% compared to 2021 (in 2022 there were three working days less than in 2021). It should be noted that the results of the annual national accounts for 2022 will be released on 1 March, while the quarterly ones consistent with the new annual data will be presented on 3 March.
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