As we all know, for the price to go from point A to point B, it must also pass through points C, D, E, F and so on. When the primary trend is up, we need to take advantage of market reversals as much as possible.
And now we are right on a reversal: from the highs of the period at $25,200 to the current value of $22,400. This is a noteworthy contraction, but up to $20,800 we can consider ourselves in an uptrend.
The evaluation of the trend is down: last week it was -5, while now it is -10. I think it’s a great time to buy the dip.
General situation
The trend has weakened, in recent weeks it has lost strength.
Supports:
Target:
- 23.800$
- 24.200$
- 25.000$
- 32.300$
In the graph below, we used a point analysis methodology based on linear regression lines. In this video I explain what it is.
The Control Point or POC (Point Of Control) indicates the price line with the maximum volume: it therefore marks the level that the market considers the fair value, or adjusted value, of an asset in the period under consideration. The POC of Bitcoin is currently positioned at $23,104.
But growth and subsequent stabilization is not yet supported by volumes: this means that the price is bound to move from $23,000.
Bitcoin is also perfectly respecting seasonality. Here’s today’s graph: fasten your seatbelts, because bullish momentum is expected through the end of April.
This is my proprietary indicator, available free of charge to anyone who would like to download and install it on TradingView. All my analyzes are done with the software provided by TradingView.
Volumetric analysis
The volumetric analysis of the order flow denotes a very large quantity of buy limit orders, therefore below the current price and specifically:
- Between $22,000 and $32,000: 2,200 BTC for sale;
- Between $22,000 and $12,000: 7,400 BTC in purchase.
Basically, order flow is a big floor where orders are sold at a certain price: there is no way for an asset to move where there are no orders. Since our last analysis, orders have changed very little.
But compared to a few months ago, we notice some changes. At the time, there were only orders below the current price, while now we also see interesting orders at $25,000, $27,000 and $29,000.
Prices to watch:
Sentiment
Let’s take a look at the market sentiment of the major cryptocurrencies:
Significant increase in the market cap, with a final stabilization:
From an option point of view, there are options listed up to December 2023 with values up to $80,000. The odds of BTC hitting $80,000 are now 6% – an improvement from 2% a few months ago. There is also a 6% chance it falls to $11,000.
General performance of the last month:
We point out that on Wednesday 8 February Mirko Castignani was a guest at Il Sole 24 Ore, where he discussed analysis and options on Bitcoin in a podcast.
Mirko Castignani he is a trader, entrepreneur and financial trainer. Starting from 2017 he collaborates, as a teacher, with trading companies of the caliber of Avatrade, WeBank and SaxoBank, Directa SIM, iBroker. He is also a guest for American financial markets on CNBC, as well as a member of SIAT, AIEF.
In 2013 he founded, together with Andrea Vaturi, Advantage Unfair: a financial training company that still collaborates with leading Italian credit institutions and Spanish brokers. Today he is also a member of the board of directors of ANPIB, the National Association of Private & Investment Bankers.
He regularly posts market updates on his Telegram channel.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading involves risk, so you should do your research before making a decision.
