An international study has revealed worrying predictions: more than half of our planet could experience climate change by the end of the century. Entire regions could experience conditions never seen in human history. What will be the consequences for biodiversity, society and our way of life in your area and elsewhere?
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climatologistclimatologist Everyone agrees: if global warming continues at this rate, major tipping points will be reached in the coming years. in ” tipping points “ A cascade of ecological upheaval will be at its core and it is to a large extent the functioning of our planet that will be modified. But concretely, what might the climate of the future look like? This is the subject of a study published in earth’s future by George Mason University, Virginia.
A new climate scenario on 48% of the planet
According to the study’s findings, by 2100, 38 to 40 percent of the Earth’s surface will have a climate different from that of today. The most pessimistic climate projections on the development of global warming predict that this percentage could rise to 48.1%: so half of the planet will have a new climate, and as a result, a new landscape by the end of the century! To arrive at such a scenario, scientists used climate modelclimate model CMIP6 ,Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) using current climate distribution data. According to the Köppen classification, the world is made up of five main different climates. It is based on temperature, rainfall etc. season’sseason’s, We thus find on earth:
- tropical climate
- dry climate
- temperate climate
- Continental climate
- polar climate
Dry climate will be encouraged, especially in Europe
The climate that will make the most progress, according to the authors, is a surprisingly dry climate, which will increase by 31 to 34% of Earth’s land surface. right behind climate tropicalclimate tropicalWhich will increase from 23 to 25%. Obviously not all regions will be affected in the same way: Europe and North America are the lands that will undergo the biggest changes. By 2100, 71 to 89% of Europe and 51 to 66% of North America will experience severe climate change. Other regions, such as Africa, will also suffer the consequences of global warming, but in a different way: their climate will not change radically, but on the other hand, they will be more affected by the events. weather reportweather report extreme. The polar regions are in danger of disappearing completely. They represented 8% of the Earth’s land surface between 1901 and 1930, and now only 6.5% of it.
This modification of the terrestrial climate landscape would have two major consequences: First, changesAgricultureAgriculture Those would have to adapt, but also adapt to a different distribution of mosquito-related diseases. since the beginning of XXI Over the century, scientists estimate that the climate of 14.77% of the Earth’s surface has already changed, especially in Europe, North America and Oceania.