2023 hurricane season promises to be more active than expected

The large number of cyclonic events already formed since June makes it seasonseasonNot more active than usual, but downright “hyperactive” according to US meteorologists! According to DurationDurationWe’re currently a third of the way through hurricane season in the North Atlantic, with typically the most active months still ahead of us: August, September, and October.

Water heat causes meteorologists to completely revise their forecasts

Normally, El Niño climate phenomena spur the development of many cyclones, but this year, the Atlantic Ocean’s record warmth has fueled three tropical storms (Arlene, Brett and Cindy) and one hurricane (Dawn). changed the situation. Forms between the end of June and July.

El Niño is gradually strengthening and is still too weak to have a real impact on the formation of cyclones. and considering HeatHeat Incredible North Atlantic (average surface temperature of 25°C in recent days), likely to have a mitigating effectBoyBoy can’t fightenergyenergy Available in oceans. Accuweather (United States) has reclassified this season as “potentially very active” with great concern for the period from late August to early September: 13 to 17 events are now expected to occur across the season, including four to eight stormstormIncluding one to three adults. meteorological office Now predicts 19 events, including nine hurricanes, including six major hurricanes. The strengthening of El Niño between late October and November could result in a calm end to the season.

From hurricanes to extreme rainfall in the Pacific Northwest

If in the North Atlantic basin, no event has yet given rise to a disaster, this is not the case in the northwest Pacific Ocean: the 2023 season has already produced six events, including Cyclone Doxuri, which There has been a big impact on the coasts. of China, Taiwan and the Philippines. ventsvents Winds reached 240 km/h, but it was the rainfall that caused the most damage (276 mm in Beijing, and more than 400 mm locally). Beijing has had its worst FloodsFloods For at least 140 years, and about 70 people have died in the country. Years marked by an El Niño event typically produce storms with more rain in this part of the Pacific.

The most powerful storm at the moment remains Mavar, the first storm of the year classified as “extreme”, with winds of 295 km/h at the end of last May. Organization tropical storm threat Weather forecasts 30% more active than normal in the region: about 29 events in total, including 19 typhoons, 12 extremes.

Should we fear a hurricane season that will be unusually intense this year as well?

article of carin durandcarin durandwrote on May 31, 2023

Hurricane season officially begins Thursday 1^Is June in the North Atlantic. Against all odds, large organizations weather reportweather report All agree on a hurricane season that is less intense than previous hurricanes.

Every year, as hurricane season approaches, the same rhetoric occurs: Hurricane forecast bulletins each time announce more active weather than usual. Except this year. NOAA and various US universities, which publish bulletins relating to hurricane season in the North Atlantic, all declare “near normal”, or even “below normal” weather! In the current context of global warming, these statements may come as a surprise: rising ocean temperatures are the main fuel for hurricanes. When waters are abnormally warm, cyclonic events form more easily, and above all, intensify more quickly.

Normalcy expected to return in 2023

NOAANOAAAmerican Reference Organization for the Study of the Oceans andAtmosphereAtmosphereforecasts that the North Atlantic hurricane season has a 40% chance of being normal, 30% weaker than normal and 30% stronger than normal. Between June 1 and November 30, NOAA predicts 12 to 17 events, including 5 to 9 hurricanes, including 1 to 4 major hurricanes. of course that doesn’t mean they’ll touch terraceterrace and do damage. The confidence index for all these predictions is 70%. There are 16 storms in the North Atlantic in 2022, 21 in 2021 and 31 in 2020, which is a record. In any case, the 2023 hurricane season is projected to be “less active than previous years”: it will therefore likely be a return to normal after unusually intense seasons.

Return of El Niño will disrupt storm formation

So what’s happening this year? The main factor that will affect the 2023 season is the return of El Nino, the warming of part of the Pacific Ocean which has an impact on the global climate (after 3 years) GirlGirl, its cold counterpart). El Niño is known to reduce North Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Niña often has the effect of making it more intense. El Niño affects the world’s weather in different ways depending on the region: In the Atlantic Ocean, it causes higher temperatures. PressurePressure In the atmosphere, with strong winds at high altitude. This strong wind shear prevents storms from growing in height, and therefore from becoming more powerful: in these conditions, storms have more difficulty forming, and are therefore less intense.

However, the alarming warming of ocean waters could change the situation: Climate change complicates hurricane forecasting by disrupting the natural laws of the atmosphere and oceans. NOAA reminds us that, even if the hurricane season is in fact less intense than previous ones, it only takes one hurricane to cause a large-scale disaster. Like Hurricane Ian, which marked the 2022 hurricane season: It ravaged Florida in September, killing at least 161 people and causing tens of billions of dollars in damage.