Production capacity is expected to come by 2030 photovoltaic and wind sourceWith advances in battery technologies, this is in line with International Energy Agency (IEA) goals to achieve carbon neutrality by the middle of the century.
This perspective emerges from a new study conducted by American research institute Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) in collaboration with Bezos Earth Fund.
According to research experts, by 2030, energy derived from photovoltaic and wind power plants, including all its forms, could account for more than 33% of the global energy supply. This represents a significant increase from the current level of around 12%. In addition, the trend of remarkably low cost seen over the past 10 years is expected to continue. In fact, two energy-generation technologies could cut their cost in half by the end of this decade.
Towards decarbonisation: examples from eight leading countries
An analysis by the Systems Change Lab, a research body jointly established by the World Resources Institute and the Bezos Earth Fund, found that eight countries, including Uruguay, Denmark and Namibia, are demonstrating a concerted commitment to achieving decarbonization goals .
These countries have achieved a significant increase in their energy generation capacity through photovoltaic and wind sources. Not only have they exceeded the growth rate needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C, according to the scenarios outlined by the International Energy Agency (IEA), they have also provided strong evidence of this. Decarbonization can be achieved,
COP 28 aims within reach, but more investment needed
The ambitious target set out in COP 28 to triple the capacity of renewable energy sources by 2030 now appears achievable. However, for this vision to be realised, further hurdles have to be faced and overcome. Key priorities include Strategic investment in electricity gridThe Simplification of authorization proceduresI’optimization of market structures And thisExpansion of Energy Storage Capabilities, These necessary steps will lead to a more sustainable and reliable future in the global energy supply.
Global Transformation of the Electricity System: From Fossil to Green
The rapid increase in annually installed renewable energy capacity has brought the global electricity system to an inflection point. The year 2020 marks the point when the transition from fossil fuel sources to sustainable energy sources has become almost unstoppable.
the current indications are Fossil fuel demand in power sector has reached its peak According to the researchers, it will decline drastically by the end of the decade.
According to the Systems Change Lab, by 2030, Solar and wind power can generate a huge amount of 12-14 thousand TWh globallyThat is, 3-4 times more than in 2022. This would also exceed the recent call to triple overall renewable energy capacity by 2030, made earlier in the wake of the organization of COP 28 to be held in Dubai in late 2023.
Benefits of increasing renewable energy
The RMI analysis reveals an emerging scenario in which demand for electricity derived from fossil fuels is set to contract significantly. By 2030, a reduction of up to 30% is expected from the 2022 peak. what drives this change Increasing competitiveness of renewable electricityWhich is consistently proving to be cheaper than hydrocarbons in terms of cost.
The strong growth of renewable energy sources is generating significant benefits of scale. Apart from contributing to the fight against price inflation, Promoting security in renewable energy supplies and encourage the creation of new jobs. Thus the rise of renewable electricity is shaping a more sustainable and cost-effective future for all.
From Uruguay to Chile: concrete examples of rapid energy change
Efforts of eight countries- Uruguay, Denmark, lithuania, Namibia, Netherlands, Palestine, Jordan I Chile – Creating a clear road map for a successful and rapid energy transition. These countries have demonstrated that transition to solar and wind power can be successfully achieved in very different contexts, as evidenced by the Systems Change Lab.
globally, Wind and photovoltaic energy should take up 12% to 41% of the current energy mix by 2030Which corresponds to an increase of 29 percentage points.
Denmark, Uruguay and Lithuania are already achieved so much in just eight years, Similarly, Namibia, the Netherlands, Palestine, Jordan and Chile accelerated solar and wind power generation with steady progress over a five-year period.
These countries represent a wide variety of economic conditions, with per capita GDP ranging from $4,000 to $67,000 per year. What they all have in common, however, is the will to move towards renewable energy, supported by effective policies, reducing the cost of renewables and a commitment to energy security. These concrete examples demonstrate that Transition towards a sustainable energy future is possible in a variety of contexts,
a virtuous cycle of cost reduction
The accelerated proliferation of renewable energy sources is driving an unprecedented transformation in energy markets, with cresulting in reduction in hydrocarbon prices, This trend, highlighted by the researchers, creates a virtuous cycle in which the cost of renewable energy falls very rapidly.
Over the past decade, the cost of renewable electricity has declined, removing a major barrier to its widespread adoption. Data from BloombergNEF (BNEF) shows that Photovoltaic energy and battery costs to drop by 80% between 2012 and 2022, Similarly, offshore wind costs were reduced by 73%, while onshore wind costs were reduced by 57%.
According to RMI forecasts, what is already the cheapest method of electricity generation in history will continue to get better. By 2030, photovoltaics could halve their cost again, which has reached $20/MW as compared to the current more than $40/MW. This trend underlines the inevitable progress towards an increasingly sustainable and cost-effective energy future.