To address the problem of global warming, a coordinated and planetary intervention is necessary that favors ecological and especially energy transitions to a scenario of sustainability for all.
Fossil fuels still dominate new energy demand
In the last five years, Half of global new energy demand is met by fossil fuels.That’s despite the rapid build-up of renewable capacity, according to the latest annual report from Det Norske Veritas (DNV) on overall progress in moving away from fossil fuels.
The report, titled “Energy transition outlook 2023“, found that global energy demand is expected to increase by 2.5% in 2022, reaching a new record of 161,000 terawatt hours. This growth has been led by China and other developing countries, where growing populations and urbanization are driving energy demand.
The increase in energy demand has been met mainly by fossil fuels. Their share in new demand was 73%, On the other hand, renewable energy represented 27% of new demand, an increase of 20% compared to 2021.
The DNV report found that the energy transition is underway, but it is still too slow to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement. To achieve these goals, we need to accelerate the creation of renewable capacity and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
Renewables cover 51% of energy demand
In its Energy Transition Outlook 2023, DNV highlighted that in the period 2017-2022, renewable energy sources covered 51% of additional energy demand compared to what was needed globally up to that point. Meanwhile, the remaining 49% of new demand was still met by fossil fuels.
The report found that Global energy demand to increase by 2.5% in 2022Reached a new record of 161,000 terawatt hours. This growth has been led by China and other developing countries, where growing populations and urbanization are driving energy demand.
What will the world energy system look like in 2050?
The report’s forecast to 2050 is based on the DNV model of the global energy system and is a comprehensive analysis that includes:
- Size and cost of renewable energy technology
- Energy demand by sector and source
- energy efficiency
- energy supply
- electricity and infrastructure
- energy expenditure
- Policies that Guide Change
- global emissions
- Analysis for 10 regions of the world
The report estimates that renewable energy will account for 70% of global energy production in 2050, up from 29% in 2022. Wind and solar will be the dominant renewable sources, accounting for 36% and 29% of energy production respectively. Global Energy.
Energy transition too slow to stop climate change
According to the DNV 2023 report, renewable sources are not replacing fossil fuels, but only covering the increase in energy demand. As a result, the supply of fossil fuels continues to grow The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C appears increasingly unattainable, The DNV report warns that accelerating the energy transition is essential to avoid the devastating effects of climate change.
Path towards Paris goals according to DNV
The Norwegian Naval Classification Registry states that to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, CO2 emissions should be halved by 2030, However, according to DNV forecasts, this goal will be achieved only after 2050. A 4% reduction in emissions is expected by 2030 compared to 2023, and a 46% reduction by mid-century. Additionally, DNV projects peak oil will be reached in 2024, marking the beginning of a decline in fossil fuel demand.
The global energy transition is still a long way off
DNV CEO Remi Ericsson said in the presentation of the report that the world is not making enough progress in the energy transition towards clean sources. The report said Fossil energy continues to dominate the global energy mix and CO2 emissions are set to reach record levels by next year, Ericsson said the energy transition is only happening at the regional, national and local levels, not at the global level.
Energy security and geopolitical crises slow down the energy transition
According to DNV, geopolitical uncertainty related to the crises between Ukraine and Russia, and now Israel and Hamas, has highlighted this Energy security is emerging as a powerful driver of energy policy, The report highlights that governments are keen to invest more in locally produced energy.
DNV CEO Remi Ericsson commented that despite short-term disruptions in the energy transition due to rising interest rates, supply chain challenges and energy trade changes linked to the war in Ukraine, the long-term trend towards the energy transition remains clear. The global energy system is expected to transition from a current 80% fossil-based energy mix to a system that includes approximately 50% non-fossil sources within a single generation. However, Ericsson points out that, despite this acceleration, This may not be enough to achieve the Paris goals,
Mixing renewable energy and fossil fuels
The DNV report estimates that renewables will account for 70% of global energy production in 2050, rising to 29% in 2022. Wind and solar will be the major renewable sourcesContribute to 36% and 29% of global energy production respectively.
However, the report also predicts that fossil fuels will continue to play an important role in the global energy system, accounting for 30% of energy production in 2050. Natural gas, in particular, is expected to remain an important source of energy for transportation. Industry and power generation.
This mix of renewable energy and fossil fuels is essential to ensure secure and reliable energy supplies as well as support the global economy.