from european scientists Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) predicts with practically absolute certainty that 2023 will be the hottest year in the last 125,000 years. The findings came in their latest report, in which they highlighted that last October was the warmest month on record for that period. The combination of continued greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities, and the onset of the El Niño weather pattern, which warms surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, has created an all-time record, surpassing all previous global measurements. to be done.

October 2023, hottest month ever

October 2023 was the hottest month ever Global average temperature 15.30°C, 0.85°C above October average for the period 1991–2020 and 0.40 °C above the previous warmest October, 2019. The global temperature for the month of October 2023 was the second highest among all months in the ERA5 dataset after September 2023.

The month was overall about 1.7 degrees Celsius warmer than the average October for the pre-industrial reference period, 1850 to 1900. The global average temperature from January to October 2023 is the highest on record, 1.43°C above the pre-industrial average of 1850–1900 and 0.10°C above the equivalent period of the warmest calendar year (2016).

2023, the hottest year ever: the urgency of climate action

Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, said 2023 will almost certainly be the hottest year on record. The global average temperature is about 1.43 degrees Celsius higher than in the pre-industrial era, Burgess also highlighted the need for ambitious climate action ahead of the UN climate change conference COP28 in November. “The sense of urgency for climate has never been greater,” the Copernicus expert said.

2023, Antarctic sea ice at historic low

According to Copernicus data, October 2023 is the sixth consecutive month in which Antarctic sea ice extent remains at a record low, with monthly values ​​11% below average. Similarly, Arctic sea ice levels were the seventh lowest value recorded, 12% below last month’s average, Copernicus highlighted. These findings, based on computer-generated analysis and the ERA5 dataset, include billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and global weather stations, Highlight the urgent need to tackle climate change,

Record rainfall in Europe and other regions of the world

According to Copernicus data, in October 2023, rainfall was above average across Europe, with Hurricane Babette hitting Northern Europe and Hurricane Aline bringing heavy rain and flooding to Portugal and Spain.

The weather service highlights that, apart from Europe, many areas of the world experienced wetter than normal conditions. These include southwestern North America, parts of the Arabian Peninsula, areas of Central Asia and Siberia, southeastern China, Brazil, New Zealand, and parts of southern Africa. Such circumstances are often related to the passage of cyclones, which caused heavy rainfall and significant damage.,

In contrast, some drought-prone areas of the southern United States and Mexico experienced drier temperatures than normal, which was found across much of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, including areas of Central and Eastern Asia, as well as Australia. ,

Paris Agreement obsolete

In the first ten months of 2023, the global average temperature was 1.43 °C above the pre-industrial average (1850–1900). This figure even surpasses the first ten months of 2016, the current record holder for the hottest year on record. A warning sign for experts is the risk of obsolescence of the Paris Agreement signed just eight years ago.

The Paris Agreement set out to keep global temperature increases “well below” 2 degrees Celsius and avoid exceeding the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius. They already seem inadequate, During the first months of 2023, the world has already recorded almost 75 days of temperatures above the 1.5°C threshold, indicating a rapid acceleration in climate change. This scenario raises serious questions on current strategies to deal with the climate crisis.

Global warming and contribution of El Nino in 2023

The main reason for the current climate situation, no doubt Global warming due to human activities, However, as happened in 2016, another factor has exacerbated the situation: El Niño, a climate phenomenon that occurs on average every five years, causing a significant rise in the waters of the Pacific Ocean and, as a result, affecting global temperatures. It happens.

Last summer, many parts of the world experienced unprecedented temperatures, including Europe, which Copernicus described as “hottest summer ever, This rapid sequence of temperature records increases the pressure on climate talks coming just ahead of COP28, the key annual meeting of UN countries to discuss the policies needed to tackle the climate crisis.

This year’s conference will be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates and according to Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of Copernicus, “The sense of urgency for ambitious action has never been stronger, The consequences of climate change are now clear for all to see, with records being broken year after year, underscoring the need for urgent action.

winter climate outlook

According to the extension of the Copernicus Multi System Model, there will be greater zonality in the first part of the winter of 2023–2024, with tense Atlantic westerly currents and fluctuations over southern Europe and the southwestern United States. In this sentence, Precipitation will be above average and temperatures will be above average in parts of the Mediterranean,

However, in the second half of winter, the flow will be blocked, blocking anticyclones centered between the North Atlantic and Greenland. In this sentence, Cold will likely increase toward mid-latitudes,

This type of trend is closer to years dominated by a moderate-strong El Niño, such as the one currently underway, and by a positive AMO. The first, more zonal part is also related to the presence of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño.

Categorized in: