A big surprise came from Moody’s: the rating agency, the most serious of the “three sisters.” advanced i’approach Italy’s rating to “stabilize” From “negative”. Long-term ratings in domestic and foreign currencies and senior unsecured notes were Confirmed with “Baa3”Investment grade first
reasons for decision
The decision to change the approach – the agency explains – “reflects the stabilization of the approach economic strength of the country, The health of its banking sector and dynamics of public debt. The medium-term economic outlook continues to be supportiveImplementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), while energy supply risks have reduced, partly thanks to strong political action by the government. Banking sector reforms, which Moody’s expects to strengthen, also support economic growth. In turn, expectations of positive and sustained GDP growth in the coming years reduce the risks of a significant and rapid deterioration in fiscal strength.
The affirmation of the Baa3 rating – Moody’s underlines – is supported by the remarkable strengths of the Italian economy, including the strong manufacturing sector, high wealth of families And this low private sector debt,
However, Moody’s also identifies some fragility resulting in limited institutional capacity to achieve structural improvements in developmentImplementation of reforms and investments Provided by PNRR. Furthermore, since comprehensive and sustained fiscal consolidation would be politically challenging, the Agency believes that debt burden Italian debt will remain very high, limiting its fiscal strength.
Moody’s basic assumption is that the Italian debt burden will remain about 140% of GDP In the coming years, credit affordability will gradually weaken as the cost of new loans increases.
Italy’s rating is also taken into account Loan assistance from the European Central Bank (ECB) and a commitment to use all available tools to respond to a sharp rise in interest rates. The rating therefore also includes shortcomings in terms of Italy’s political effectiveness, making its credit profile dependent on the existence of reliable support from the ECB.
Moody’s ends autumn session
moody’s opinion stops examinations, of autumn Which Italy had to overcome after economic maneuvers full of unknowns. And the round of ratings by rating agencies stopped.
Before Moody’s he expressed himself S&P Global Ratingswhich had reaffirmed its “BBB” rating and stable outlook on Italian debt, fox furwhich had maintained its “BBB” rating and stable outlook and the Canadian DBRS, which had affirmed the “BBB High” rating with a stable trend. ,
“Satisfied with the result. It is confirmation that, despite many difficulties, we are doing well for the future of Italy”, commented Giancarlo Giorgetti, Minister of Economy and Finance, after Moody’s decision. “We hope that the government’s prudent, responsible And serious budget policies – the minister said – will also be ratified by the Parliament, despite legitimate criticism of the democratic system”.