The +2 °C limit of global warming compared to the pre-industrial era was crossed on 17 November: this is a first, as no day before had presented such a deviation from the pre-industrial norm.

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While the +1.5 °C temperature limit compared to the pre-industrial standard was exceeded several times during the summer, it is now another symbolic milestone that has been reached in recent days. According to Copernicus ECMWF calculationsFriday 17 November presented a difference of +2.06 °C compared to the 1850–1900 average. There has never been such a difference since the beginning of the surveys. Compared to the recent benchmark, the 1991–2020 average, this represents +1.17°C.

The year will end with an average temperature rise of +1.4°C

Does this mean that the +1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement has been exceeded? No, because one day of +2°C temperature does not add up to a whole year. But this is still an alarming sign of the growth of global warming, with a clear acceleration in 2023. In addition to the consequences of greenhouse gases on the atmosphere, there is another factor this year: climate phenomena. BoyBoy, whose warming effects on the planet overlap with global warming associated with human activities. El Nino strengthens in November before reaching its peak intensity in December. Therefore, it is almost certain that there will be other days with temperatures up to +2 °C in the coming weeks. Regarding average warming in the year 2023, the latest projections show an overall difference of +1.3 to +1.4 °C, which is close to the symbolic limit of +1.5 °C.

The planet just broke its absolute temperature record

article from carine durandcarine durandWritten on July 5, 2023

The planet experienced its hottest day since records began: the first on Tuesday, July 4, but the record was immediately broken the next day, Wednesday, July 5, with an average of more than 17 degrees Celsius. Globally.

The globe’s average surface temperature, measured at an altitude of 2 meters, rose to 17.18 degrees Celsius on Wednesday, according to data from the University of Maine – Climate Reanalyzer. This represents a difference of +1.64°C compared to pre-industrial levels, as shown in this graph: the green curve is the average of 1850–1900, the yellow curve is the average of 1979–2022, the red curve is 2023 and The blue curve is the average. Limit of +1.5°C warming compared to pre-industrial levels.

This is not the first time that the symbolic limit of +1.5°C warming has been exceeded in a single day and does not mean that the purpose of the Paris Agreement has already been broken: it has established a limit of +1.5° C was averaged over the whole year, not over a day. But the frequency of crossing this limit on a daily basis is raising concerns.

Let’s not forget that half of the Earth is in the middle of winter

A temperature of around 17 degrees Celsius may not seem so worrying to many, but remember that this is a global average, and half of the planet is currently in the middle. winterwinter, Before these 2 days in July, the previous record was August 14, 2016: so this record occurred during the hottest year on record. In comparison, the average value in early July over the period 1850–1900 was about 15.5°C.

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