If we don’t react quickly we are headed straight for temperatures of +3 degrees Celsius

This Friday, November 17, 2023, our planet exceeded the 2°C global warming limit for the first time since measurements began. Which is mentioned in the Paris Climate Agreement under which we aim to remain “In encompassing manner”,

A shock. But really no surprise. Because we continue to tirelessly emit greenhouse gases (GHGs). And a few days ago, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed this: concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂), in methane (CH₄) and in nitrous oxidenitrous oxide (n₂O) has never been more important in our environment.

today it is United Nations Environment ProgrammeUnited Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), which has once again concluded in its annual report on the gap between needs and possibilities to reduce emissions door belldoor bell alarm. Even if countries respect the commitments made within the framework of the Paris Agreement, our world is still on track for anthropogenic global warming of between +2.5 and +2.9 degrees Celsius per year compared to the pre-industrial average. This initial target is much higher than the now famous +1.5°C. Already, moreover, as of early October 2023, our planet had experienced at least 86 days beyond this limit!

The trend is towards global warming of about 3°C!

Speaking on the occasion of the publication by UNEP of its annual report on the gap between needs and possibilities CaseCase lack of broadcastbroadcastUN Secretary General Antonio Guterres no longer hesitates to speak” Difference “more than “A valley of shows, a valley littered with broken promises, broken records and shattered lives. , And for those tempted to estimate its exaggerated response, a recent study suggests that more than 70,000 deaths are due to it. HeatHeat In summer 2022. Nothing but Europe.

To put other numbers into words, experts report that between 2021 and 2022, our greenhouse gas emissions are set to increase by 1.2%. Thus they reached a new record level of 57.4 gigatons of CO equivalent₂ (GTCO₂eq). Thus, to keep global temperatures within the +1.5°C warming limit defined by the Paris Agreement, we would need to agree to increase our emissions reduction target to 22 GtCO.₂By 2030 eq. This is equivalent to a required reduction of 42%!

Stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming

UNEP experts state that it is physically possible to keep global warming below +1.5°C. But in reality, no G20 country, for example, is reducing its emissions at a rate consistent with net zero emissions ambitions. As a result, the chance of meeting the Paris Agreement objective is now only 14%. In the most optimistic scenario.

Michael Mann, climatologistclimatologist At the University of Pennsylvania (United States), he wants to continue to believe in it. “The windowwindow Opportunities are diminishing and reducing our emissions is urgent. But global warming can still be kept below 1.5 degrees Celsius”, He assured that he would stop. even though ice capsice caps Melting will likely continue and sea levels will continue to rise. “And that we may be in for some nasty surprises. , stop emitting CO₂ Will come back to stop warming. Here’s at least one news that brings hope.

The carbon budget is ending, but hope remains

A hope that is up to us to turn into reality. “To do this, we must take bold action now. “We know this is still possible by tackling the harmful root cause of the climate crisis: fossil fuels.”, Antonio Guterres recalls. As the report once again underlines the gap between needs and possibilities in terms of emissions reductions: CoalCoalThe OilOil And the gas released during this period DurationDuration The life of operating or planned mines and fields will emit more than 3.5 times the carbon budget available to limit warming to +1.5°C, and even almost the entire budget available to limit warming to +2°C.

Scientists also warn that to compensate for these emissions, higher levels of CO removal could be achieved.₂ stay “Uncertain and associated with risks”, The conditions for large-scale deployment cannot actually be met in time.

This is why UNEP experts are also calling for a just and equitable transition to renewable energy. Just a few days before the inauguration of 28 in Dubai^I At the Conference of the Signatory Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change – commonly known as COP28 – they specifically called on G20 countries to take more ambitious and rapid measures and to support developing countries financially and technically. Especially since a new study has been conducted oxfam international Today it confirms that the richest 1% of the world’s population is responsible for as much carbon emissions as the poorest two-thirds of the planet. Here in France, the richest 1% of people emit as much carbon in one year as the poorest 50% of people do in 10 years. And the carbon footprint of our country’s richest man, Bernard Arnault, is 1,270 times higher than that of the average French person. Apart from its investment…