The El Niño climate phenomenon has crossed a critical threshold with already visible consequences on weather in some parts of the world. But its strongest impact will come only next year. All the parameters are in place to make the summer of 2024 certainly historic in the world!
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The consequences of the 2023 El Niño event are already visible in some parts of the world. This warm anomaly in part of the Pacific Ocean is already responsible for the extreme heat in northern South America, or even what is slowly reaching Australia. Apparently with a natural effect that is made worse by global warming. El Niño begins in late spring, but will not reach its peak intensity until the beginning of winter. In recent days, temperatures in the Pacific El Niño region have reached +2 °C above normal, making it a “strong El Niño”.
No “Super El Nino”, but still a strong event
However, fears of a “Super El Nino” appear to be diminishing. To fall into this extreme category, the warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific must deviate from the norm by +2°C for 3 consecutive months. According to forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, this will not be an a priori case: it predicts a +2.1°C difference in December, then weakening below the 2°C mark.
However, this strong El Nino 2023/2024 hasn’t stopped people talking about it. The last time this part of the Pacific Ocean was this warm was in February 2016, and that winter was followed by a record one-year heat wave across the globe. Because the impact of El Niño on weather in the rest of the world is not immediate: there are no official rules, but many climatologists have observed that the strongest consequences usually occur a year later. Considering El Nino is strengthening, and global warming is accelerating, the year 2024 will almost certainly be even hotter than 2023 – which will already be either the hottest year ever recorded or the second.I The hottest year.
Many climate factors will be involved in making 2024 a record year
If El Niño reaches its peak in the coming weeks, it is expected to have its strongest impact on world weather during the summer of 2024 in the Northern Hemisphere. Some climatologists expect record heat in the summer of 2024. In France, the consequences of El Niño have never been officially proven, but many meteorologists believe that it causes wetter and more turbulent weather, similar to what we are currently experiencing.
In Western Europe, El Niño is often associated with intense storms the following winter (in 2024/2025). But, while waiting for possible consequences on the Northern Hemisphere next year, it is the Southern Hemisphere that fears significant consequences for its summer (December to February). Australia is directly affected by this phenomenon, with a significant risk of heat waves and wildfires in the coming months. In the Amazon, drought already exists and is expected to worsen.
Other areas such as Peru or California are expected to experience heavy rain and flooding. In addition to global warming and El Niño, other parameters (such as volcanic eruptions in Tonga releasing large amounts of water vapor, a warming gas), the solar cycle reaching the peak intensity of its 11-year phase in the middle of next year, temperatures in There will be further increase. So 2024 will undoubtedly be a landmark year for climate