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If we go beyond that, our world will never be the same again.

Increasingly, the goal of keeping anthropogenic global warming below 1.5°C seems unattainable. So why don’t we allow ourselves to consider temporarily transcending this limit? OvershootAs English speakers say? Because it will have inevitable consequences. “irreversible”warn the researchers.

Limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. This is a goal set by the Paris Climate Agreement. At the point where we are – 1.2°C warmer than the pre-industrial average – this would require us to roughly halve global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Still in 2023, our BroadcastingBroadcasting has increased. Just over 1%. But they have increased again. Thus, most scientists now consider a temperature rise of more than 1.5°C inevitable.

Global Warming: Can We Stop It?

As a result, almost all the routes discussed today involve what English speakers say. “Overshoot”. Understand, a period during which the 1.5°C threshold temperature rises before we manage to drop below it. Crossing our fingers that the consequences of this temporary overshoot aren’t too significant. Crossing your fingers? It doesn’t sound very scientific. But so far, few studies have questioned the consequences of a. Overshoot.

Beyond 1.5°C, the world is no longer the same

so far. Because the researchers just published in the journal. The natureThe results of three years of work on this subject. And they show what can be seen. “more confidence” i The matterThe matter. According to them, in reality, exceeding the 1.5°C limit of global warming, even temporarily, “irreversible consequences” for the planet. Thus it can have effects that last for hundreds or even thousands of years. This could push some systems to a tipping point and cause irreversible damage to our climate system. “Even if we manage to lower temperatures again, our world will not be the same if we haven’t crossed the threshold.”assure the researchers.

The researchers explain, for example, that, given the uncertainty about the magnitude of expected feedback from the Earth system, it is difficult to rule out the possibility today thatOvershoot Even more important is what we are gradually preparing for. MeteorologistsMeteorologistsie, more than about 0.3 °C. To return to 1.5°C of warming, we would then need to deploy the same amount of sources to remove carbon dioxide (CO).2)) More than we need EnvironmentEnvironment. Because we can’t wait for it to go away naturally.

“We will not be able to eliminate the 10 billion tons of CO2 per year announced for 2050.”

The researchers’ models give a figure of 400 billion tons of CO.2 (GTCO2) surplus will be phased out by 2100. Extra because already, the trajectories that hope to keep us as close to 1.5°C warming as possible predict a need to eliminate 400 GtCO.2. “It may not be possible to rely on CO elimination.2 of the environment to compensate for our failure to reduce emissionsthe researchers concluded.

Too much CO2 to eliminate

Thus, regardless of political, economic or even social constraints, nothing seems to guarantee that a Overshootwe are indeed able to get back below the 1.5°C warming mark as quickly as expected. “In terms of results, the heat peak is significant, but vitessevitesse “After that we can bring the temperature back up is also important.”assure the researchers. Because for every 100 years spent above the threshold set by the Paris Agreement, for example, sea levels could rise by an additional 40 centimeters. However, this speed depends on both the peak level and the level of negative emissions that we can implement. Understand CO elimination levels.2 We will be able to mobilize once we achieve net zero emissions of our environment.

Enough for the researchers to conclude once again that there is an urgent need for governments to take steps to reduce carbon emissions. Green house gasGreen house gas. “Race of Carbon neutralityCarbon neutrality It should be considered for what it is. » A race… If we emerge victorious, we will have kept peak temperatures low enough – even by more than 1.5°C – that we can hope to remove enough CO.2 – Provided, here too, that efforts are made to deploy rapid mitigation capabilities – to quickly return to a climate that minimizes risks. EcosystemEcosystem And for our society.

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