Wednesday, November 13, 2024
HomeTechnologyAtlantic waters are warming: Could a hurricane hit France one day?

Atlantic waters are warming: Could a hurricane hit France one day?

The remnants of two former hurricanes Kirk and Leslie caused torrential rains and flooding in France in October. Since the 2000s, around 30 hurricanes have reached European shores. But, to date, no real hurricane has managed to resist. Is it possible that one day a hurricane will hit our country?

A hurricane is currently unlikely to hit Europe. What was dubbed the “Hurricane of 1987” and which hit Brittany was indeed an explosive storm, but not a tropical cyclone. Medicanes, or Mediterranean hurricanes, are systems. Weather reportWeather report The first condition for a hybrid true hurricane to form or resist is water at a minimum of 26°C. However, since 2023, the average surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean has reached 25 degrees Celsius several times, which was unthinkable just a few years ago. So the possibility of water at 26°C on one day cannot be ruled out.

High winds complicate hurricane survival.

However, other parameters come into play: one of the most important conditions is a calm environment in the upper layers, but disturbed in the lower layers. Strong winds at high altitude have the effect of preventing the cyclonic trend from strengthening and gaining height. If the trend manages to increase, the presence of high-altitude winds has a “red” effect on it.

These two main conditions currently make the development of a hurricane, or its survival, impossible along the European coast. Northward moving hurricanes encounter the jet stream, whose winds blow in the opposite direction of the hurricane. By the end of the century, even if the waters continue to warm, the strong winds circulating over the North Atlantic near Europe will not allow any hurricanes to survive.

Former hurricanes sometimes produce heavy rainfall.

According to work published in Reports of IPCCIPCCthe Global WarmingGlobal Warming would not allow true hurricanes to reach Europe as they do on the Caribbean or American coasts. However, it is quite possible that the remnants of previous hurricanes that have reached us are heavier with rain, and that classic hurricanes and depressions are also rainrain Because of The heatThe heat of the sea.

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