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Elections, Trump or Harris: What are the scenarios for investors in the US market?

If Donald Trump wins the presidential election.Investors can expect a strong reaction in certain sectors. Generally, their re-election fields may fluctuate.Energyfrom Defense And of Cryptocurrencywhich could experience potential growth, while the technology and clean energy sectors could face further challenges. So investors should be prepared for one. Market rotationEspecially in sectors that are sensitive to trade and are regulated in the environmental field. He points it out. Independence 24 That he developed. A strategic analysis Identifying areas that may present interesting opportunities as election history will be decided by the new US administration.

US election, Trump or Harris

In the event of a Kamala Harris win On November 5, his policies will likely focus on clean energy, regulatory oversight and housing and economic support for the cannabis industry. With a Democratic administration, the market could respond positively to growth sectors such as technology and renewable energy, positioning the Harris administration as a potential enabler. Long term infrastructure e di Initiatives to support green.

Regardless of the election results, the months of November and December – Freedom24 analysts further explain – could be an experiment. Marked volatility Even before the November 5 meeting, when investors will adjust their portfolios based on the expected winner of the election.

Both scenarios present opportunities for sector strategies. However, investors will need to carefully monitor political changes and maintain flexibility in their portfolio selection in anticipation. A clearer political landscape towards 2025.

What will be the global economic impact?

Still on the subject of the US election Peter Garnery, Head of Equity Strategy at BG SAXO (Saxo Bank) highlights how eThe US presidential and congressional lectures on November 5, of course, They will influence the direction of the global economy for months and years. Because the US economy is still the largest economy in the world. Its stock market dominates all other markets with 65% of the total value of global stocks..

If Trump wins.Trump’s “America First” approach could lead to more. Friction with China And less support for Ukraine, which could be a big factor. Geopolitical uncertainty in Europe. It can also lead to labor shortages, thus higher wages, higher inflation and disruptions in global supply chains. The semiconductor industry is most at risk.. American SMEs and possibly economic development, the gold market and banks will be favored.

If there was a deadlock. If Harris wins but the Senate is opposed, it will mean that Harris’ goals for health care reform and tax increases will not pass, and that the status quo on China will be maintained. At the economic level, This scenario is potentially the worst for growth.: Adverse fiscal stimulus will slow the economy in 2025 resulting in a Risk of recession.

Finally If Harris wins.At the policy level the focus will be on health care. economic development and housing issues; Climate change and clean energy. Many of Harris’s policies a Increase in inflation. Pharmaceutical companies would be the biggest losers in this scenario, and higher corporate tax rates would reduce their earnings in the short term. However, incentives for construction companies can start the process. Job creation and increases family formation, thereby increasing the associated costs. A clear impact on the market is a Clean energy stocks rally. Emerging markets and European stocks may react positively.

America First vs. Continuity

Xiao Cui, Senior Economist at Pictet Wealth Management observes how With only 14 days left until Election Day, the two candidates are clearly tied. We believe a Kamala Harris win could lead to a divided government, thanks to the Republican advantage in the Senate. However, in the event of a Donald Trump victory, a Republican victory in Congress is more likely than a divided government, due to the extremely close races in the House.

Republican Party wins Reflation will encourage trade policies, Tax cuts and increased spending were accompanied by calls for “America First” rhetoric. A Trump victory with a divided government would instead signal a trade war 2.0 in which potential downsides to growth would not be offset by fiscal stimulus. Conversely, a Harris win in a divided government would result in continuity with the outgoing administration, while a Democratic win would result in higher taxes on businesses and high-income families, rather than welfare spending. will also increase.

Trump’s policies on taxation, trade and immigration “should be more pro-inflationary than those proposed by Harris. We expect increased economic uncertainty with higher tariffs and limited labor supply and a more aggressive stance on trade.” .

Positive moderation in the labor market and easing of the economy “Stick to our basic scenarioAnd, with the Federal Reserve cutting the neutral rate to about 3-3.25 percent in 2025. However, a Trump presidency could trigger a more aggressive monetary policy and a reassessment of the final rate cut cycle,” concludes the expert.

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