Temperatures are higher in late summer than in November. Europe finds itself dealing with a climate that upsets plans for energy markets. Gas price which falls 38.3 euros per megawatt, At a one-month low. And with the forecast still predicting weeks of sun and unseasonably warm weather, demand for heating remains stagnant, further reducing prices.
Gas drops dramatically: The price in Amsterdam drops below 41 euros.
In Amsterdam, the gas market closes with a twist: TTF contracts lost 1.9%, reaching 40.59 euros per megawatt hour. Methane, which was a concern only a few months ago because of its price, is now almost sold out.
Reverse effect: Oil rises amid geopolitical pressure.
When gas slows, oil rises: Brent hits $75, WTI crosses 70. There are multiple reasons behind this increase. On the one hand, rumors about the potential are intensifying. Moved by OPEC+: This could postpone the December production hike, postponing the timing. on the other hand, Tensions are rising in the Middle East once again.Last week, Iran threatened a brutal response to Israeli attacks. These elements are reflected in crude oil prices, keeping markets on alert.
A warm winter eliminates demand and fills storage.
In Europe, gas demand is so low that stocks are reaching record levels: in Italy, filling is 98.5%. The Old Continent enjoys a Rare energy advantageWith reserves higher than the seasonal average of recent years. And, as record heat continues and floods ravage regions like Valencia, demand for heating systems appears to be mirage, leaving reservoirs full and plentiful.
It’s not just the weather that keeps gas prices down. ‘Europe aims for new transit agreements.and Hungary and Slovakia are close to an agreement with Azerbaijan for a stable arrival. There is talk of 12-14 billion cubic meters of gas per year that could be delivered through the Russian-Ukrainian transit network, thus guaranteeing another safety margin to an already well-supplied continent.
The European gas market is alive The ups and downs of the months, Complicated by fears of potential supply disruptions. The European Commission has sought to calm the mood among member states by highlighting the continuity of concerns. In the background, there are countries like Slovakia and Austria that continue to import through Russian gas pipelines, choosing not to close supply channels despite geopolitical difficulties.
Decline in demand from Asia and collapse of TTF futures
In the oil market, however, the game is wide open and there are many variables at play. Europe, in fact, is not the only country to reduce gas demand. Asiaespecially China and Japan, Sees a drop in applications.which further pushes liquefied natural gas prices down. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, this scenario could drive prices even lower than current values. Meanwhile, Friday November 1 ended with further declines in TTF futures, the main benchmark for European methane, down 3.48 percent to settle at 39.18 euros per megawatt hour.
