What just ended was one. A transitional week for the real estate sector in the stock exchangeTo find out how the business has fared in recent months and to make new predictions for 2025, the third quarter results of the sector’s majors are awaited. : Probability of deduction by fed Next week remains a lot, while for B. C. E A 25bp decline in December is virtually certain.
However, stronger-than-expected growth in Europe and stronger-than-expected growth in the U.S., combined with a rebound in inflation, have led markets to bet on the fact that the Fed and ECB They will not rush to reduce the cost of borrowing.. In recent days, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview that a 2% inflation target is on the horizon but that price dynamics are not fully under control.
Sector performance in stock exchange
The real estate sector experienced a negative week at the European level with the index. Stoxx 600 Real Estate which recorded -3.8% on a weekly basis, worse than the Stoxx Europe 600’s -2.9%.
A slightly better performance was achieved by Italy, where the index FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate It fell 2.2% on a weekly basis, while the FTSE MIB index underperformed, closing the week down 1.5%.
Real estate securities listed in Milan
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, there was a week. positive For next again (+1.2%). Little Move Living In Worse However, performances are recovering (-9%). negative Addis (-3.5%), Gabetti (-1.9%), Brioche (-1.6%). Small drops for IGD (-1.2%).
While the quarterly reporting season is yet to fully begin, Remedy Clause i The first nine months With a cumulative net loss of 27.5 million euros in 2024, compared to a positive net result of 16.7 million euros as of September 30, 2023 (which also benefited from the positive impact of the Project Starfighter operation amounting to approximately 30 million euros).
Macroeconomic data
The biggest insight comes from America this week. First, the Mortgage applications According to the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA), 30-year mortgage rates were slightly lower, after a big drop last week, to 6.73 percent.
From the point of view of Home pricesthe Federal Housing Finance Agency index marked +0.3% month-on-month and +4.2% year-on-year for August 2024, while the S&P Case-Shiller index recorded +5.2% year-on-year for the same month.
He sped up The sale of the house is in progress. In September, according to data from the Association of Real Estate Operators (NAR), with an increase of 7.4 percent on a monthly basis.
Sector studies
Recently, the 2024 Confindustria Assoimmobiliare public meeting was held, during which the survey was presented: “Acknowledged value. Real estate investment concept in Italian and major cities”, created in collaboration with the SWG Research Institute. . 67% of the population consider these measures. Rehabilitation of damaged neighborhoods49% believe that it is necessary to replace abandoned industrial buildings and 33% consider it necessary to build university student residences. In particular, looking at large cities, the analysis shows that the social impact of brick interventions in Milan is above all linked to a strong public value and the ability to create widely accessible spaces. In this context, the need to create safe spaces for residents and citizens is also fundamental. In the Milanese capital, 72% of the population judges this type of investment favorably, compared to a national average of 63%. Major initiatives in the real estate sector are then seen as a win-win process for all actors involved: from financial investors to home buyers to neighborhood residents.
According to an analysis by the Technocasa Group Research Office based on data from the Revenue Agency, a positive scenario is described for the second quarter of 2024. Business Real EstateWith sales increasing across all sectors, albeit at a lower growth rate than in the first quarter. It was warehouses that recorded the strongest growth (+9.9%), followed by shops that closed the quarter with an increase of 5.5%. As far as the offices are concerned, the transaction has increased by 2.6%.
The Burke Observatory, built by the Barry Company, has calculated that in the first nine months of 2024 Real estate auctions Published prices in Italy continued to decline, while the average value of the starting prices remained stable around 170,000 euros, with an average change of 1%. Big cities show different trends: the number of auctions in Rome remained stable compared to the same period in 2023, while average auction starting prices decreased by 21% (from 316,000 to 250,000 euros). However, auctions in Milan increased by more than 52%, with the average auction starting price increasing by 12% (from €221,000 to €250,000).
