The planet faces a dramatic acceleration in global warming starting in 2023: last year was the warmest on record since records began, with an unprecedented deviation from the average. The year 2024 continues in this vein and is now almost certain to be the warmest new year on record. asked the director of an American scientific journal. NASA Goddard InstituteGavin Schmidt, explains that the unusual warm peak that has lasted for 18 months is partly unexplained.
gave MeteorologistMeteorologist Head of NASANASA Admit: Part of the extreme global warming that has been ongoing since March 2023 cannot be explained. ” As climate scientists, the year 2023 has made us more humble, but also more alarming. Admittedly, no other year has challenged our climate predictions as much as 2023. Gavin Schmidt admits. Our forecast for 2023 is less than 0.2°C, which doesn’t sound like much, but it’s actually huge. ».
Not all known heating factors are sufficient to explain the current peak.
However, the reasons for very strong global warming in 2023 and 2024 seem well established so far: BroadcastingBroadcasting Climate trends of greenhouse gases from human activities the childthe child (June 2023 – May 2024) which has the effect of warming, amending regulations on emissions from large ships (which clears the skies, and exposes the ocean to more heat), Eruption of water vapor from the Hanga Tonga volcano in the Pacific Ocean, a phase of the solar cycle that does not help…
But aside from the consequences of human emissions of greenhouse gases on rising temperatures (which are not called into question, their role remains significant), climatologists tell the paper. Yale Environment 360 That the warming associated with the reduction in pollution from ships is calculated to be 0.05 to 0.08 °C, which is not enough to explain the peak in 2023 and 2024.
Likewise, he states that the latest studies on the results of the Tonga volcano prove that its cooling power was stronger than its heating power! The current solar cycle is not favorable: Over the past 10 years, the amount of solar radiation hitting the Earth has been increasing. The effects of these rays are well understood, but scientists believe they should be minimal. So all this is not enough to explain the incredible acceleration of global warming from the beginning of 2023.
Forecasting models are older than current developments.
For Gavin Schmidt, there are then two options: Either we missed a factor that has an effect. [qui s’additionne à celui des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, NDLRNDLR]or we just underestimated. vitessevitesse The heat “Is there another phenomenon contributing to climate warming that we don’t yet know about? Or did El Niño have a stronger effect than expected? That’s a possibility.
According to a new study published in the journal Sciencethe warming effect of the last El Niño was much stronger than scientists expected. A spectacular jump in temperature also occurred in 1977 (less strong than in 2023). And the planet faced disaster again. An obvious increase in heat.
The honesty of one of the world’s leading climate scientists is astonishing: ” Things are more random than we think. This means our future predictions may be off the mark. ».
” All our forecasting systems are overwhelmed by climate change. », lamented Gavin Schmidt.
