Donald Trump He retrieved the keys.a The White House. News that didn’t surprise markets, which were already discounting the tycoon’s re-election bid against Democratic rival Kamala Harris. Two destinies, one goal: to lead the world’s largest economy in one A very difficult historical momentfeatures from Uncertainty, wars and divisions A nationalist and protectionist in nature. But what will Trump’s policy be? And how will the new president position himself in relation to the European Union, China and the Middle East?
An internal policy favoring corporates
Trump’s economic policy, as it is known, is thorough. In favor of large multinational companiesFor which the future occupants of the White House are planning on a grand scale. Tax rate reduced from 21% to 15% and increased investment in the name ofAmerica first. US isolationism, before having any impact on foreign policy, will translate into increased investment in large infrastructure projects, especially where dependence on foreign countries is greatest.
One is also waiting. Stimulus policy by the Federal Reservewhich will not end support for the economy and, in fact, may accelerate next year to revive growth.
All elements that exist in markets in one way or another. already “price” In the last month and that A buoyant response from US indices – the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones and Russell 2000 – have confirmed to some extent. That’s what it goes for Bitcoin, which celebrated Trump’s victory is sensational, touching new historic highs. The value of gold and dollar has increased. On expectations of a more accommodative Fed, which will announce its decisions tomorrow: Expectations for a new rate cut of 25 basis points have not changed since Trump’s win.
An ambivalent attitude towards Europe
againstEurope The problem is still brewing. gave Dollar There is clearly appreciation against the Euro and this could create, in the short term, a Restoration of competitiveness For European exports. A favorable situation that will not change if the Trump administration comes up with a tariff policy, but Enforcement of Revenues A tariff will be created on imports from the European Union. Severe limitation of foreign tradeWhich not even a strong dollar can reduce. The assumption of a 10 percent duty on imports from the EU carries too much weight on the already fragile European economic situation, so much so that investment analysts are generally prepared for it. Revise GDP growth estimate to 0.2 percent. European in 2025, currently indicated at 1%.
Trump would also represent a major shift from the current Biden administration. On the geopolitical front And that would mean a step back In conflict Between Russia and UkraineWhich will put a heavy burden on the financial costs of the European Union and member states. However, an evolution that could have positive effects is pushing for greater integration of the bloc’s economic and financial politics.
Dual attitude towards China
China had long been betting on Trump’s re-election and the confirmation of his victory had negative effects on markets, although not as marked as expected. But what does Trump’s second presidency mean for China? It is clear that The main implication will be the return of uncertainty.as a result of the tycoon’s always ambivalent attitude towards Beijing.
If you look at the currency market, Trump will win. Clearly negative for the yuan And, at the same time, positive for Dollar leadership. As for TradeAlthough Trump is expected to raise tariffs during his second term, it is unclear when and to what extent tariffs will be imposed on imports of Chinese products. There Tariff risk up to 60% That could actually start a round of negotiations that could lead to a downward deal on tariffs or an increase in U.S. exports to China.
An end to wars in the Middle East
Just a week ago, from New York’s Madison Square Garden, Trump shouted, “I will end the war in Ukraine.” I will put An end to the chaos in the Middle East And I will avoid the Third World War.” A clearer foreign policy could not have been imagined, were it not for the fact that the background of such a policy was to be found in economic and financial relations. Saudi Arabia and the United States.
It is not Arab. World’s second largest crude oil produceris also the fifth largest country in the world. Purchase of weapons And it has plenty of active finance that’s building it. Massive investment A partner to hold in high regard for the infrastructure of the United States.
