A week of heavy losses for the real estate sector ended as investors’ focus remained on central banks: the latest inflation data BoE Deciding to cut rates by 25bps, even if inflation is expected to pick up. There Norges Bank Rates have been kept at 4.5 percent, while Riksbank The Swedish cut rates by 50 bp to 2.75%. Investors’ attention was more focused on the decision Federal Reserve That cut interest rates again by 0.25 percentage points and analysts expected another cut in December. The move caused little reaction in the market as its exact size was well known to investors. President of the central body, Jerome PowellHe said: “We are approaching neutral rates and so it may be appropriate to proceed more slowly with cuts”. The banker also commented that the election results will have “no impact” on Fed policy in the short term: Donald Trump won the US presidential election clearly with a stronger mandate than in 2016. Sea, the weak European economic outlook will not be helped by talk of US tariffs and could be the catalyst for further rate cuts. B. C. Eexperts say.
Sector performance in stock exchange
The real estate sector experienced a sharp drop in the week on the Milanese market, while it limited losses at the European level: the Stoxx 600 Real Estate index returned home with modest partial gains. In Italy, the FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate index fell more than 6 percentage points.
Real estate securities listed in Milan
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, the drop was steepest for IGD (-7.5%) which announced its financial statements confirming its guidance for the full year. Brioschi also slipped (-3.9%) followed by Gabetti (-2.8%). Well, however, recovery and survival grew by more than 2 percent.
Macroeconomic data
The usual number came from America. Mortgage applicationswhich showed one a week from November 1 10% reduction in applications. Mortgage applications are falling sharply in the United States. An index measuring the volume of mortgage loan applications fell 10.8%, after -0.1% last week. The index related to refinancing applications fell by 18.5%, while that related to new applications fell by 5%. There Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) indicated that 30-year mortgage rates rose to 6.81 percent from 6.73 percent previously.
Sector studies
The group notes that data for the first half of 2024 shows a healthy residential market GabityItalian families are approaching home buying with more confidence, partly encouraged by the stability of some of the economic fundamentals that Italy currently boasts and which distinguish it in the European panorama. The climate confidence index is increasing by 8% compared to October 2023 and 2% compared to January 2024: both economic (+1% compared to the beginning of the year) and personal one (+3% year). At the GDP level, this first half of the year saw a modest increase of 0.3% in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second quarter, confirming the growth that has continued since the second half of 2020. Even on the employment front, Italy continues to see growth. The number, with the first half of the year reached 143,305 employees, +2% over the same period in 2023 and the record of the last 10 years. This results in an increase in the employment rate and a percentage increase in this first half of the year compared to H1 2023 (62.1% vs. 61.1%), while the unemployment rate falls to 6.2%. , which has not been seen since before. The 2008 financial crisis.
Analysis of the Group Research Office Technocasa The first half of 2024 still highlights a shortage of housing supply: many properties were purchased immediately after the pandemic, new construction projects have slowed due to uncertainty and rising raw material prices.
