gave The “black swan” theoryhigh-impact events, very rare and unexpected, but not impossible, capable of changing the course of the economy and finances The affective factor of “outrageous predictions”. Which outlines every year. BG SaxoA broker born out of a joint venture between Saxo Bank and Banca Generali. But what are the extreme scenarios for 2025? And what might be the possible effects on the economy and finances?
Among the expected black swans over the years There are also assumptions from the Saxo group that have become reality, eg BrexitExpected in 2015, or increase in value Cryptocurrency 2017, and increased investment Fossil fuel When war breaks out in Ukraine in 2022. For next year, BG SAXO has guts. 8 “Outrageous Prophecies“: From the Dollar Crisis to the Fall of OPEC.
The dollar crisis
The re-election of Donald Trump could put the US dollar in crisis. The first black swan considers the assumption that the president decides to impose his second term. Duty on all importsWith the help of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), disrupting the supply of money necessary to turn the wheels of the global system, leading to Falling Dollar And, at the same time, aThe rise of cryptocurrenciesbut also digital money, gold and the euro.
Nvidia doubles Apple’s price.
Nvidia Doubles Apple’s size – an unlikely but suggested hypothesis – to become the most profitable company of all time. According to BG Saxo credit should go to one. The revolutionary chip of artificial intelligence, capable of increasing the performance of AI calculations by up to 25 times with the energy consumed. With rising power costs for data centers, the innovative chip will capture market and share. Nvidia They will be exchanged Above $250.
China will bet everything on financial incentives.
After creating the most epic debt bubble in history, China bets on fiscal incentives.: According to this forecast, in 2025, China will generate 50,000 billion CNY (approx. 7,000 billion dollars), with social policies that encourage companies to reduce working hours to improve people’s quality of life.
The first 3D bioprinting of the human heart
A scientific breakthrough is the most promising black swan of 2025, capable of revolutionizing the healthcare sector and attracting new investment. The researchers – it is assumed – will use the latest technology 3D bioprinting to print the human heart Fully functional: Starting with high-resolution scans, scientists can create an elaborate digital model that captures every detail of the heart’s structure. Then a sophisticated 3D bioprinter will layer human stem cells and biodegradable materials to create the artificial organ. A wave of Innovation and investment It will be worth it Redesign the health care sector. And enhance the lives of millions of people.
The Electric Boom and the End of OPEC
As battery prices fall, i Electric vehicles They could become cheap quickly, which could lead to a crisis in the oil market. The fifth black swan is therefore concerned. The collapse of OPEC, Due to the loss of centralization of the transport of petrol or diesel and the gradual decline in the importance of the cartel: With the exit of some key countries, the remaining members in the organization will increase production to secure market share, which Because of Fall in the price of crude oil.
Tax on data centers
After electricity prices rise, the US can. Impose a data center tax on Big Tech. Penalties for AI and for large, energy-intensive data centers. This unlikely scenario will trigger new investments in the sector, among others. Solar parks and power plantsRising energy prices are fueling a new wave of inflation.
Decline of insurance industry due to natural disasters
The seventh prophecy deals with one. A storm of great dimensionswhich could catch the insurance sector unprepared, leading to Bankruptcy of a large company Guilty of downplaying the risks associated with climate change. The US government will find the ad itself. Facing a crisis: Save the insurance company, to prevent other companies from suffering the same fate and creating panic among consumers. However, a catastrophic event will require insurance companies. Review premiums related to natural calamities.resulting in deep declines in home values in many markets.
The pound will bounce back after Brexit.
The last one is about Black Swan. Recovery of the British Pound: While the European economy struggles, a new Labor government in the UK could launch new fiscal policies to bring the national currency back to pre-Brexit values. 1.27 against the Euro. Encouraged domestic investment and strong growth prospects will support the pound against the euro, pushing the exchange rate down to 0.7500.
