A meeting of OSCE countries could be an opportunity. Resumption of negotiations between Russia and the West. And also between Russia and Ukraine. The Russian minister is in Malta for the annual summit. Sergey LavrovOn his first historic visit to an EU state since the February 2022 mass attack.
The head of Russian diplomacy, the US secretary of state, can therefore meet at the same table. Antony Blankenship and the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Cybega. Will this really be an opportunity to open a window to end hostilities?
Lavrov, Blinken and Sybiga at the OSCE in Malta
i 2023 Lavrov was gone anyway. In North MacedoniaAt the time it was the seat of the rotating chairmanship of the OSCE, while last year Poland refused the participation of the head of Russian diplomacy. It was Lavrov’s last visit to the European Union. at Geneva on 21 January 2022when he met himself. Antony Blankenship. Lavrov’s presence is prominent in all these precedents. It certainly didn’t translate into conversational opportunities.. In Skopje in December 2023, the mere presence of a Russian minister sparked controversy, several foreign ministers of EU states said. He chose to leave the room. At the same time during his speech, Blanken and Lavrov’s calendar was also set. Prevent the two from passing each other in corridors. The protocol in Malta for the summit will be completely different. Signs of a meltdown Which both delegations have agreed to present before the eyes of the world.
Be careful, however, to read Lavrov’s presence in the West as a sign of Russia’s openness to peace in Ukraine and renewed ties with the USA and the EU. Since etiquette is important on occasions like Malta, the program reveals that the Russian minister is invited to lunch on the first day, but He will not be allowed to attend the dinner.Titled “Russian Aggression Against Ukraine”. At the official ministerial meeting, ballots are drawn to determine the order in which countries will speak at the meeting. Ukraine will speak first.while Russia was prepared to speak last, but agreed Exchange places with Tajikistan. So you can exhibit as fourth.
The Kremlin prefers tactics. A “two-pronged” approachNegotiating individually with each state interested in diplomatic (and commercial) rapprochement with Moscow. There are many European states, Germany The first phone call between the first Vladimir Putin e Olaf Schulz Two years in is proof of that. But Russian-German cooperation is one of The worst strategic nightmare for the United Stateswhich has worked hard to avoid its re-emergence from the Second World War until today (with the building of the Cold War, NATO and the European Union). Lavrov’s presence in Malta is more likely to testify. Russia’s main interest in the MediterraneanIn which he stationed many of his ships and naval bases, beginning with Tartus. War-torn Syria.
“Normal will return with West” for Putin
Backing the news, undoubtedly exaggerating his effective mediating capacity, was Putin’s intervention. A decisive intervention is different from the usual one that the Russian president has made. Toned down the usual war tone. And predicted that relations between Moscow and the West. “Inevitably” destined for normalization. And also that “the door is open” to the return of Western companies that left the country after the conflict began. A rhetorical olive branch has been waved – for Purely strategic reasons e Without a desire for peace – During the Economic Forum in Moscow. All this while the Kremlin, along with Kiev and European countries, waits to learn the contents of the initiative announced by the US president-elect. Donald Trump For a Cease fire in Ukraine.
The Russian President answered the questions of the participants of the conference for two hours. Reconciliation is needed To deal with the economic problems arising from the conflict between Moscow and the Euro-American bloc. The crux of Putin’s détente propaganda is: Soften the sanitary cord Made with sanctions and hostile actions by the United States and the European Union. The Kremlin is beginning to realize that it is dedicated to the sun. Trade with China and Iran through Central Asia can lead the Federation to a Strategic defeat In the long term. In other words: the bear risks selling out and surrendering itself to the Chinese dragon.
The economic heart of Putin’s speech is also evident from the references.Inflationwhich has reached record levels in Russia despite a A record discount rate of 21%. The President is concerned about this. Increasing social tension Even outside the cosmopolitan metropolises of Moscow and St. Petersburg, it is well known that foreign humiliation on Russian soil historically leads to a revolution. “We must use all the instruments of economic policy correctly and wisely to fight inflation, Without structural excesses“He said. But the European countries, he maliciously emphasized that they are also interested in rapprochement.
Answering a question from a viewer Germany And speaking in his own language (keeping in mind his past as a spy in East Berlin), Putin specifically addressed his “German friends.” Part of the problem for him and other Europeans, he said, is a result of the fact that “they’ve lost the possibility of getting Stable supply of Russian energy at reasonable pricesPutin then mentioned the industrial group. The German crisis: “Why? Volkswagen Has it left the Russian market? he asked himself. Especially since, he says, only “a quarter” of Western companies have left Russia since February 2022. However, he promised, If they want to go back, no hurdle will be created.. No special conditions will be created for them, we have not kicked anyone out, the doors are open. However, tensions with Germany, particularly in the Baltics, are also high.
A solid chance for peace between Russia and Ukraine?
Let’s not beat around the bush: the rapprochement between Lavrov, Blankenship and Sybega It will not embody any openness from Moscow. Nor are Putin’s words, properly contextualized. Yet the occasion in Malta, so public and exposed by the media, undoubtedly represents one. Calculations by the Kremlin. In the few weeks separating the world from Trump’s new presidency, Moscow has somehow had to suggest that an improvement in relations is at least possible.
Second Reutersan adviser to Donald Trump, has been “publicly and privately making proposals to end the war in Ukraine.” They will hand over large parts of the country to Russia. In the near future.” Three important advisorsincluding Trump’s envoy to Russia and Ukraine; Retired General Keith Kelloggwould include the withdrawal of Ukraine from NATO. Neutrality of the aggressor country Indeed, this is the main condition requested by Moscow. The conditions ascribed to a future US administration are far from those aired by Kiev, including entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. But for Ukraine “The situation is now dramatic.”The Finance Minister admitted Serhii Marchenko. “There is no means to stop Russia and stop it from conquering our territories, but we are strong, we are determined to protect our country.”
Therefore, the positions of Moscow and Kiev remain intact. far away. Even if something seems to have changed, at least in words. The incoming Trump administration has said it is working on it. A program for peace in Ukraine which facilitates elections in the invaded country and the abandonment of Russian-held territories. Vladimir Zelenskyfor its part, is the first Changed the plan for Ukraine From “for victory” to “flexibility”, then being open to peace even without the return of Russian-held territories. But Under the umbrella of NATO. Propaganda and something else.
