Nomisma 2024 presented the third edition of the Real Estate Market Observatory, dedicated to the analysis of the performance of the 13 Main Italian real estate markets: Bari, Bologna, Cagliari, Catania, Florence, Genoa, Milan, Naples, Padua, Palermo, Rome, Turin and Venice. The study shows that the Italian real estate sector is showing the first signs of recovery, after a slowdown caused by the continued tightening of credit for home purchases.
Sneaky recovery for sale
According to Nomisma, the possible reactivation of part of the demand for real estate and the subsequent recovery of the market depends on two main factors. On the one hand, the stability family income, Although the current context does not exclude a slight labor market deterioration. On the other hand, the need for a Relaxation of strict conditions on access to credit, Still quite selective today. Despite persistent uncertainty on both fronts, the recent, albeit modest, increase in purchase intentions and transactions offers a glimpse of potential expansion.
Sales recovery is accompanied by one price cuts, Which, after a long period of steady growth, closed the year at the level recorded in the first half of 2024, on average. According to Numisma Observatory, the stabilization of prices in the second half of the year is the result of an adjustment. Expectations on the part of sellers, compensated by a lower willingness to make concessions during negotiations.
But there are drops in Italian cities.
Some significant reductions contribute to the substantial stability of average prices in the 13 main Italian real estate markets, with the Milanese market standing out. -1.5% decrease On a six-month basis, followed by Bari, Rome, Turin and Venice Lagoon.
While the slowdown in Milan could be interpreted as a possible sign of weakening of the national real estate market, the progressive return of demand-led interest and the recovery of already ongoing trade indicate a more positive outlook. is However, on a year-on-year basis, the average prices in the monitored markets were a record. +1.7% increase for housing +1.5% for those in excellent condition and in good condition.
Rent in major cities
In the rental segment, the report highlights how increased use of the rental market, while waiting to access credit again for a portion of the demand currently foreclosed for home purchases, is driving rentals. Pushed upwards. Rents rose at an annual rate of more than 3% in almost all cities.
Rents rose in Milan and Rome, respectively, despite a slight drop in demand. +3.2% and +4.7% on an annualized basis. The housing segment’s average annual gross total return remained stable at 6.8%, in line with the figures recorded last year.
The survey reveals an increase in the share of families considering renting. The only possible solution, Due to lack of sufficient economic resources to access the real estate market. The percentage of households that chose to rent increased from 56 percent in 2023 to 59.3 percent in 2024.
This dynamic reflects the absence of effective public policies at national and local levels, which has left market regulation exclusively in the hands of private operators. This context has had significant impacts, particularly on the most vulnerable families, without real alternatives to meet their housing needs.