of the Board of Directors at the next meeting to be held on December 12 The ECB is set to cut rates by 25 basis points.. That’s a view shared by several economists who have expressed their views on countermeasures the European Central Bank should implement amid growing fears of a tariff clash with the United States. In fact, the ECB should approve an even faster adjustment of at least 100 basis points in 2025, in addition to intervention at the last Frankfurt meeting in 2024, according to experts.
Opinion of economists
He is convinced of an imminent reduction in the cost of money in the next Governing Council. 75 economists Interviewed by International Press Agency. ReutersTwo of which provide for a 50-basis-point cut in light of a trade war with the U.S. that could be on the horizon when Donald Trump is inaugurated in the White House on January 20.
60 of the 75 experts also forecast two moves to cut rates in the next quarter, while another 39 expect two more cuts of 25 basis points in the second quarter of 2025, leaving rates 2%.
In any case, more than 75 percent of economists estimate that percentage or even higher Below this limitaccording to the opinion of the request from always Reuters.
“And 25 point cut Our basic scenario remains – explained Jan von Gerich, chief analyst at Nordea – and the words of the ECB board members point in the same direction. Even if this is confirmed, deep uncertainty for the future should ensure that the message delivered by the ECB is soft and open.”
“Trump’s potential to increase uncertainty in the eurozone is great…(and) the fact that In both Germany and France “The lack of a strong government makes it difficult for Europe to make quick and accurate decisions,” he reiterated.
He also holds the same opinion. Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finlandwho announced in an interview that the ECB would continue to ease monetary policy in the coming months, due to inflation falling below the 2% target and weak economic growth in the euro area.
“These factors underpinned the reasons for the reference rate cut in December and this direction of monetary policy will continue in the coming months,” Rehn said without elaborating on the data.
“It is always important to maintain a margin of maneuver – he explained – even if there is some form of communication on direction. Well established“
Lagarde’s words
According to observers, the ECB is holding off on cutting rates in December because of the ongoing political turmoil in France. No confidence in the Barnier government
After all, the president of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde He also reiterated the prudent approach in his speech to the European Parliament’s Economic Commission, which deals with the EU’s economic and financial issues.
“We will review our position next week, depending on our data and following a meeting-by-meeting approach. So We are not engaged Advances for a certain rate path,” said the ECB’s number one.
“The medium-term economic prospects are uncertain and dominated by downside risks – he explained – geopolitical risks are high with increasing risks to international trade. High levels of trade openness and integration into global supply chains make this isThe euro area is vulnerable to foreign shocks.with potential trade barriers threatening production and investment.
