Donald Trump He chose a hawk. A super hawk. The newly elected US President has nominated. National Security Adviser No less than Michael (Mike) Waltzthe first former Green Beret appointed to a three-term congressman. Waltz quickly gained attention on Capitol Hill for his outspoken, aggressive, and often borderline positions on national security issues. His wife, Julia Nishivat, has already been a national security adviser in the Trump administration. What conditions can we expect in foreign policy now? What about the military wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the trade war with China, and other open “fronts”?
A “fluid” foreign policy
In recent times, Waltz has come into full force to talk about War between Russia and Ukraine. “We need to end this situation responsibly,” Waltz told Fox News. “We have to. Restore preventionInstead of responding, restore peace and control the tension.” Words that seem far removed from his interventionist notions.
The details of what Trump’s strategy will be are still being worked out, according to multiple sources, his officials They may insist on a ceasefire. At an early stage, to temporarily freeze the dispute, and allow the parties to negotiate. Trump officials can also be. Ask European allies and NATO to share more of the costs. Support for Ukraine is essential. At least that’s what they would want.
Trump’s positions on foreign affairs are somewhat complicated. Many analysts talk about one. “Fluid” strategy. However, before winning the US elections, Trump repeatedly said that if he were the president, the war between Russia and Ukraine would not have started. And he promised to end the controversy if he was re-elected.
In July, he made it a little bigger by announcing that. Able to resolve a dispute “in just one day”.. During the campaign, in a battle with rival Kamala Harris, he retreated more timidly, declaring that Kiev would “have to surrender a little bit” to Moscow, explaining that “any deal, Even the worst would have been better than what we did now.”
5 Possible Scenarios for Resolving the War in Ukraine
Currently, there appear to be essentially five possible proposals on the table. The first is Piano KelloggIt said the continuation of US military aid to Ukraine was conditional on Kiev’s participation in peace talks with Russia and “an official US policy for a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement of the Ukrainian conflict”. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s bid to join NATO will be temporarily frozen.
Another suggestion is that “Strategy Grinnell“, scrutinized by Waltz in recent days, is supported by Rick Grenell, Trump’s former ambassador to Germany, who would like to create “autonomous regions” within Ukraine; Even if we do not know how. “Autonomous territories can mean many things to many people, but you have to work out the details,” Grenell told Bloomberg in July.
A third way, currently the least likely, will be seen Allowing Russia to keep the territory in exchange for Ukraine joining NATO.
A fourth possibility would be to reduce aid to Ukraine and weaken its position so that it would have to accept Russian terms. An option that would naturally trigger a response from Europe, led by Ukrainian President Zelensky and probably von der Leyen.
Finally, as a last resort, Trump might. Provide temporary assistance to Ukraine. As it moves towards one. Solutions in Korea. In the latter scenario, the current frontline would become a demilitarized zone administered by UN or European peacekeepers that Russia would have to evacuate if it wanted to resume. Ukraine can continue to claim sovereignty over areas such as Don Bossbut most likely they will not be able to join NATO. Some countries may even offer to help Putin if Moscow violates the demilitarized zone.
A hard line against China
Waltz, awarded four Bronze Stars for valor after fighting in Afghanistan and various African fronts, served as a defense adviser to Secretaries Donald H. Rumsfeld and Robert M. Gates at the Pentagon. Just to put it in context, he was the one who recommended Bush’s nomination of then Vice President for Counterterrorism Dick Cheney.
His radical and often ideological positions made him one of Donald’s most trusted confidantes. In 2020, in the days after Trump authorized the drone strike that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, Waltz was among a small group of Republicans invited to the White House for a briefing on the strike. received To top it off, he often appears on Fox News as an expert on national security issues.
A member of the Armed Services, Intelligence and Foreign Affairs committees, he sharply attacked NATO allies for not honoring their military spending commitments and, above all, for immediately Towards hard-line China and Iran, but also towards Afghanistan and neighboring Mexico.
On China, for example, it has largely supported legislation aimed at Reducing US dependence on essential Chinese minerals And legislated for it. Protect universities And American academia is something he, Trump and other Republicans don’t hesitate to brand. Chinese “espionage”..
During the pandemic, he also called for a U.S. boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing because of its involvement in the origins of the Covid-19 outbreak and the Uyghurs, a Turkic Muslim minority living in northwestern China. The violence, especially in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region.
Trump has long wanted to introduce new duties on imports from allies, including higher tariffs on goods from China, but also Mexico and Canada. However, when and how it will become law is yet to be decided.
