It’s not over yet, but the percentages of the last few weeks speak for themselves: between Georgia Maloney Ed Eli Schlein It’s always there Less space. The difference between the majority and opposition leaders is, again, only 5 percentage points. However, the prime minister is losing ground among the voters. confidence in the chamber, while his opponent continues to win consensus.
So if we go to the election today, who will win the election? And, most importantly, how have the preferences of Italians changed in these two years of Meloni’s government?
Who goes up and who goes down in the election?
gave Super Media YouTrend and Agi calculate a weighted average of Italians’ voting intentions. Let’s look at the new survey data for December 20, 2024, comparing it with data from previous political elections:
- Brothers from Italy: 28.8% (-0.1);
- Democratic Party: 23.5% (+0.3);
- 5-star move: 11.4% (-0.2);
- Forza Italia: 9.1% (=);
- Liga: 8,8% (+0,1);
- Green and Left Alliance: 6.3% (+0.1);
- Share: 2.7% (+0.3);
- Italia Viva: 2.3% (=);
- +Europe: 1,9% (-0,1);
- We moderate: 1% (-0.2).
Institutions considered are Demopolis, Emg, Eumetra, Euromedia, Ixè, Quorum, Swg and Tecnè with data collected between 7 and 16 December 2024.
Confrontation between allies
Let’s see what is the percentage collected from different people today. Unity and comparisons with policies for the 2024 European elections and the renewal of parliament in 2022.
Al December 19 The situation was:
- Center-right: 47.6%;
- Center left: 31.8%;
- 5 Star Movement: 11.4%;
- Third Pole: 5%;
- Other: 4.2%.
all European elections Instead of 8 and 9 June 2024:
- Center-right: 46.4%;
- Center left: 32.1%;
- 5 Star Movement: 9.8%;
- third pole: 7.1%;
- Other: 4.7%.
all Political elections 25 September 2022:
- Center-right: 43.8%;
- Center left: 26.1%;
- 5-star movement: 15.4%;
- third pole: 7.8%;
- Other: 6.9%.
Who will win the election today?
The figures show that Georgia Maloney, despite the deficit, is still leading the first party in our country. A coalition led by Brothers of ItalyAdditionally, will win If we go to the election today, it will be another election.
Even in the assumption of one Long field In fact, the current majority, consisting of the center-left and Giuseppe Conte’s 5 Star Movement, will have the upper hand with 47.6% against 43.3%.
The potential consensus gathered by the Five Star Movement has dwindled over time, but all that could change with the reforms strongly supported by the People’s Advocate, which in effect pushed Beppe Grillo away from his political creation. Done, in favor of the majority of the members.
gave The fall of government It won’t be easy for anyone today, which is why the 2025 budget is destined to pass the Senate after first passage by the chamber, despite the opposition highlighting a number of key issues. The executive has seen confirmation of his confidence and everything suggests that the budget law will be passed without delay – also because time is running out.
The match will be played next year with Campania, Marche, Puglia, Tuscany, Valle d’Aosta and Veneto voting. Regional electionswhich will represent a new test bed for testing the souls of Italians.
The center-left may decide to strengthen the alliance with the Yellows, while Forza Italy It could return to more moderate positions than Giorgia Maloney and Matteo Salvini, with a renewed administration. But until then these are just speculations in the great game of politics. There is no shock on the horizon yet.
