The week ended with stocks in the real estate sector listed on Piazza Affari as weak, with the central bank once again the focus of investors and a “hawkish” turn by the Federal Reserve.
Central Bank Distribution
gave B.C.ELast week, it cut the money price by 25 basis points, as analysts expected, confirming that the Frankfurt bank’s monetary policy is constrained with a “data-driven” approach. On the other side of the ocean, however, in this octave, Federal Reserve The Fed cut funds rates by 25 basis points to 4.25-4.50%, but cut the number of cuts planned for 2025 to two as Chairman Jerome Powell said further easing on inflation is needed in the future. Progress will be required. The U.S. economy, according to the latest GDP data, is expanding at a pace faster than Fed officials’ non-inflationary growth rate. This has strengthened the central bank’s position that it will be slow to cut interest rates further next year.
Also for monetary policy meeting Bank of Japan (BoJ) which decided to keep its reference rate at 0.25% for the third consecutive meeting. The BoJ raised rates twice as early as 2024, after nearly a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy. In recent months, Governor Kazuo Ueda has signaled that the central bank will raise rates further, although the timing of that move remains unclear. Even Bank of England (BoE) left rates unchanged at its last meeting in 2024. A widely expected choice, but in which one could read a “slightly dovish” stance, as three members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favor of cuts. Looking ahead, the BoE has indicated around two rate cuts for 2025, reflecting a cautious outlook for future monetary policy adjustments.
Sector performance in stock exchange
The real estate sector, along with the index, experienced a week of strong declines in the Milanese market. FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate That brings the house down by more than 5 percentage points. The sector also suffered the same fate at the European level, showing a decline in the index. Stoxx 600 Real Estate 4.3 percent
Real estate securities listed in Milan
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, a decrease was recorded by Remedy That drops to about 16 percent. They follow. Next RE -7%, IGD -5,5%, stay in -4.4% Furthermore, a decrease of 2%, Bruschi e Addis. Gabity Limits the reduction to 0.7%.
Macroeconomic data
The usual number came from America. Mortgage applications Which, in the week to December 13, showed a decline of 0.7%, after +5.4% in the previous week. The index on refinancing applications fell 2.6%, while the index on new applications rose 1.4%. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) indicated that 30-year mortgage rates rose to 6.75 percent from 6.67 percent previously. The US Census Bureau provided an update on this. Construction market: Licenses rose 6.1 percent month-on-month in November, compared to a 0.4 percent drop in October’s final reading, more than analysts expected, while new construction recorded a further month-on-month decline of 18 percent, still a There is an improvement over an improvement. A decrease of 3.2 percent from the last reading in October. There are positive indications. The real estate market US: According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales in the United States recorded a 6.1% year-over-year increase in November, the largest increase since June 2021. is
Sector studies
How many mortgages are there in Italy? Bank of Italy data has been analyzed by Keron Partner, a credit brokerage company of the Technocasa Group Mortgage stock Italian families were and continue to be given time to purchase a home. There is stability in national figures in the second quarter of 2024. 375.9 billion euros with a slight contraction equal to -0.16% Compared to the first quarter of 2024. If compared on an annualized basis (2nd quarter 2024 2nd quarter 2023) the active stock of mortgages for families purchasing a home would decrease by -0.30%. The level of active mortgages is stable with minor fluctuations at around 375 billion from 2022.
According to what has been detected by Istat, in the first quarter of 2024, after seeing a fairly stable trend in the fourth quarter of 2023, Real estate transactions They start over Negative trend Observed starting from the third quarter of 2022. The statistics office explains that the decline is due to the housing sector, while the economic sector grew for the third consecutive quarter, albeit to a lesser extent in the first three months of 2024. Notarial mortgage contracts, loans and other mortgage-backed obligations continue to decline: the eighth consecutive quarter in the first quarter of 2024, although the decline beginning in the third quarter is evident. 2023. Istat also stated that in the third quarter of 2024, the phase of Rising house priceswhich started five years ago in the same quarter. The largest contribution to house price trend dynamics is mainly due to new prices which increased by 8.8% on an annualized basis, while existing house prices increased relatively higher (+2.8%). In the third quarter of 2024, the number of properties sold shows a new increase based on the trend that shows the recovery that started in the previous quarter.
