The year 2024 is the hottest year on record since weather records began and will be marked by countless weather disasters around the world. Of all the factors that influence the evolution of weather over the course of a year, two have the greatest impact: global warming associated with greenhouse gas emissions, and the anso cycle. Between global warming and El Niño, which of these two factors plays the largest role in natural disasters in 2024?
American organizations. Attribution of global climate etc Climate central studied this question and published their findings in a report on global climate to 2024.the childthe child – SouthSouth Oscillation) was marked by a fairly strong El Niño phase in 2024, with no record. El Nino is known for its warming effects on climate (which will be worth further study once all the data is available). Weather reportWeather report Collected for the year 2024) but also on disasters, such as droughts in some countries and floods elsewhere.
Global warming has had a major impact on most disasters.
El Niño lasted for a year from late spring 2023 to June 2024. Its effect is usually very strong 6 to 8 months after its installation: in winter and spring 2024. The report highlights that many of the events in early 2024 were severe. Influenced by El Nino. However, global warming has added to its natural effects: El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average waters in a certain region of the Pacific Ocean. This phase occurs every 2 to 7 years and each time causes a drought in the Amazon, so a record one in 2023 and 2024 is normal.
But this drought was historic and unprecedented. AmazonAmazon experienced its lowest level in 120 years, although there have been much stronger El Niño phases in the past. Researchers of Characterization of global weathern believe that BroadcastingBroadcasting Of Green house gasGreen house gas Human activities have made this drought 30 times more likely. In the context of the current climate, with a warming of +1.4 to +1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, such a severe drought is likely to occur once every 50 years. But it will happen once every 13 years if the temperature reaches +2 degrees Celsius.
Some events are clearly linked to El Niño.
However, the impact of El Niño and global warming varies from event to event. Most disasters were made worse by global warming, the report said, but there were exceptions: droughts in South Africa and Panama were more affected by El Niño. In the case of Panama, studies clearly showed that the El Niño cycle was directly responsible for the subsidence. rainrain. Since 1900, 4 of Panama’s 5 driest years have occurred in the context of El Niño.
The year 2025 should be marked by the phase. The girlthe girl of the Enso cycle, which is slow to arrive. It is known for its slightly cooling effect on climate, unlike El Niño. Just like its warmer counterpart, La Nina can be responsible for disasters in some countries, but also for positive weather trends in others. However, the 2025 La Niña phase is expected to be very short and very weak, and therefore unlikely to have a significant influence.
