Gas has returned to the forefront in Europe at the start of 2025, but not as much as consumers had hoped. For obvious reasons, Russia and Ukraine have not renewed the deal that tied the two countries to Russian gas, breaking a decades-long tradition of energy and financial dependence.
If Kiev hails the move as a symbolic step in its fight against Moscow, its European neighbors Moldova i Slovakia i Transnistriathey already feel the chilling consequences. All this while Western Europe faces a perfect storm of tight supplies, an unexpected breakdown in Norway and skyrocketing prices.
Europe’s energy strategy is being tested like never before, butEU assurance: For the moment (and for this year) we should have no trouble, as supplies will arrive by the alternate routes established between Germany and Italy.
Moldova and Transnistria: The Winter of Uncertainty
2025 begins with Ukraine making a stark choice: no more Russian gas will pass through its territory. Oh Strong messageDisrupting a historic channel and money flow that Kiev claims financed the Russian invasion.
i MoldovaTemperature is not the only problem. In the separatist area of TransnistriaHistorically loyal to Moscow, the start of the year brought more questions than answers. Homes are cool, and gas is a distant memory.
Transnistria lives like a relic of other times: stuck in the past, with oneThe economy is closely related to Russian gas.received unpaid and with accumulated debt that Moscow pretends to ignore. Now, with this flow disrupted, we scramble for cover: “warming points”, firewood and families forced to cover windows and doors with blankets. But the January cold does not wait.
Europe: Skyrocketing Prices and Old Dependencies
Its effects extend far beyond Moldova’s borders. Countries like Slovakia and Hungary, which still depend on Russian gas, deal with an energy crisis in mid-winter. gave Below zero temperature This has fueled the markets: Gas prices in Amsterdam have exceeded 50 euros per MWh, the highest level since October 2023.
Norway, hit by an unexpected gas incident
In the chaos of the European energy market, NorwayThe continent’s main supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has added another piece to the crisis. The Hammerfest plants, a focal point for LNG exports, were shut down due to compressor failure, reducing supply by 18.4 million cubic meters per day. This Obstacleprophecy By January 9comes at a time when Europe is already having to deal with Russian supply cuts.
To further complicate the situation, the Kollsnes natural gas processing plant in Norway has also increased its operating restrictions.
The consequences are clear: with sub-zero temperatures in many European countries, demand for gas is rising sharply, and Norway’s problems threaten to worsen an already tense situation.
For nations like Slovakiawhere the thermometer is expected to drop. -7 degrees by mid-Januarythese disruptions represent a real threat to stability of supply.
ANSA reported the warning of Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management: “(The) biggest risk (is) that the EU emerges with low levels of gas storage in the winter, which would It gets expensive.”
Moscow and Moldova: Failure to Consolidate.
Narrative in Moldova is intertwined with politics. Chisinau authorities, already under pressure on energy costs, blame Moscow. Set up a volatility strategy. Olga Roska, a foreign policy adviser to the president of Moldova, told the BBC that this is not an energy crisis, but a security crisis. Kremlin moves As part of a plan to strengthen pro-Russian forces in the upcoming 2025 elections.
Meanwhile, relations between Moldova and Russia are as tense as ever. EU membership remains Chisinau’s political beacon, but the daily reality speaks of unsustainable bills, social tensions and a tired population.
Can Europe resist?
Brussels, after the meeting of the Commission, assures: le Alternative routes and storage are sufficient to face the winter.. But behind the institutional comfort lies a more complex reality. Increasing reliance on LNG and increased demand points to higher prices and energy strategies for the future. On this chessboard, Mosca observes and waits, ready to exploit every crack.
