2024 ends with a heavy. Price increase On Christmas and New Year products. The 2025 launch, unfortunately, does not appear to reduce the cost of the shopping cart. In them raw material Coffee, cocoa, butter, palm oil, sunflower oil and hazelnuts have been and will continue to be encountered. Forecasts for 2025, amid inflation, poor weather conditions and stagnation in various markets, do not look good. Nothing good.
Italian families are not the only ones to think aboutIncrease in electricity and gasbut also on various phenomena that will be negatively affected. Purchasing power In the supermarket, from the lack of Quantity in packagesdue to lack of raw materials or fresh fruits and vegetables Weather conditions Negative Let’s analyze the context.
Most expensive products: Agricultural raw materials are bad.
gave Agricultural raw materials They are the ones whose prices have increased the most in 2024. Among them coffee, the price of which has risen not only in bars and restaurants, but also in supermarkets and produce. Cost of raw materials in last two years It has tripled Due to climate change which has affected the producing countries. In particular, there was one +83% increase +48% for the “robusta” variety and for the “arabica” variety. Finally, increased road transport and sea transport costs also affect consumer costs.
The price of cocoa also doubled, reaching an all-time high. 5,500 Euros per ton. Even in this case, the burden is on the end user Decrease in supply. Extreme weather events damaged production, which was estimated at a negative 180 thousand tons in the Ghana area alone. If we add to this lack of investment and outdated agricultural machinery, there is a loss.
This is followed by butter, which reached 8 euros per kg (+50% in 2024) due to heat stress on dairy cows, which reduced production and quality, Vegetable oils (palm oil and sunflower oil) and further increase in the prices of hazelnuts, walnuts and almonds. There are some products that have seen a price drop: pulses, such as pulses and chickpeas (-30% and -40% respectively).
What to expect in 2025?
The food sector is in trouble. Italian production has been severely affected by climate change, be it floods or droughts. They were reported during 2024. Record prices From olive oil to cocoa, for potatoes, pumpkins and more. The effects of climate change will not be gone by 2025 and in fact are destined to repeat or worsen. It is difficult to predict how production will play out and what prices will be in the next few months, but the outlook They are not pink. The reason is simple: nothing has been done to prevent damage to production and supply is destined to dwindle.
There will be no real food shortage, even if Food poverty This is a widespread trend in Italy. In fact, our country will buy more and more products from abroad and the cost of transportation will once again fall on the consumer. If we add to this all the growth expected for 2025, from gas to electricity, insurance to schools, it is clear that to reduce inequality and allow more people access to goods and services. State commitment is essential. According to the national Federconsumatori observatory, there is a lack of concrete measures to alleviate the situation and interventions such as the Dedicated to You Card are not enough to overcome the economic difficulties of families.
The Observatory described 2025 as a “test bed”, a challenge for the country and the Maloney government to reduce the impact of climate change on production and the resulting costs to consumers. is called for to respond with concrete measures and not on an ad hoc basis. From the geopolitical consequences, the increase in the cost of transportation and the absence of labor reforms that bring salaries and pensions in line with the cost of living.
