Stock markets are returning to “normal” after the Christmas holidays and various hiatuses at the start of the year. Investors remain focused on the central bank’s progress, particularly in light of the Fed’s cautious stance on rates through 2025 in light of Donald Trump’s economic policies.
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Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 17-18 meeting revealed that “many participants” saw the need for a “cautious approach” to monetary policy decisions “in the coming quarters.” He cited a number of reasons for this, including recent high inflation data, resilient economic activity and reduced risks of a labor market downturn. Concerns have also been raised about possible changes in trade and immigration policy under the new Trump administration.
If on one side of the Atlantic the Fed’s minutes increase uncertainty about next moves, on the other the ECB bulletin confirms risks to inflation, but also to growth. ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said Frankfurt should continue to cut interest rates at each meeting until they reach a neutral level by the summer, as long as inflation is above the central bank’s projections. Runs according to
US macro data boosts expectations for steady rates.
The latest macroeconomic data has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may leave rates unchanged this month due to the strength of the US economy. Notably, the December jobs report beat economists’ expectations and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. The first big data of the year, along with a strong ISM report on prices paid for services, confirmed that the labor market is still strong and the US economy is stable, raising questions about the Fed’s support plans. There is a mark.
Gold: Goldman Sachs postpones $3,000 target.
Goldman Sachs now predicts it. He By the second quarter of 2026 (compared to the first of December 2025), it will increase by about 14% to $3,000 per ounce and is now expected to reach $2,910 per ounce by the end of 2025. .
Among other things, prices of Petroleum They rise further and cross the $80-per-barrel mark with Brent, supported by rising Chinese demand and declining U.S. inventories. This includes the Biden administration’s decision to impose new sanctions against Russian oil production and exports.
on the currency market, US dollar Speculation of a possible slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts by the Fed amid a strengthening labor market sent the euro to its lowest level in more than two years. The central bank’s next meeting is scheduled for January 28 and 29, and employment trends rule out further cuts in the cost of money, making a possible cut in March suspect.
The release of unemployment figures also led to a marked increase in output. Treasury USA. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year bond in the UK has reached its highest level since 2008 and the level of the 30-year bond has not been seen since 1998. The £40bn tax increase sought by Keir Stormer’s executive and, he fears a new “Truss effect”, sent panic into the market after the then Prime Minister Liz Truss announced a plan. Presented The budget is characterized by large scale and unfunded expenditures.
Weekly performance of stock markets
This week, the crowning gainer was won by the Milan Stock Exchange which rose nearly 2% at home. The Frankfurt Stock Exchange leads with +0.95% and the Paris Stock Exchange with +0.50%. Along the same lines, Madrid +0.38%. Weaker, however, London shaved 0.14%. The final Wall Street stock market is preparing for a decline with investor caution reigning supreme ahead of the Fed meeting.
The best and worst in Piazza Affari
Among the best and worst of the week, banking stocks recorded the best performance. Among them, Mediolanum increases by 6%, while BPER and MPS increase by more than 5 percentage points. Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo also performed well, up 4%. Luxury is in demand, with Cucinelli and Moncler up 4%. Outside the FTSE MIB, Infiniti rose 13.5% following the launch of a public tender offer launched by Banca Ifis (+6.3%). On the downside, in the main basket, Campari slipped -6%, Answer -4% and Inwit -3%.
