After three weeks of imprisonment in Iran, Cecilia Sala’s release was beneficial Brothers of Italy Which makes a leap in voter preferences. The journalist and his loved ones publicly thanked the Prime Minister. Georgia melonIt goes to collect in terms of satisfaction.
For the rest, the parties struggle between minimal growth, calm conditions or even decline. The greatest suffering is experienced by i Five starstill marked by the Grillo-Conte fraternal struggle. gave PDThe main opposition party is facing a slight decline, but it consoles itself with the fact that it started at 20 percent at the beginning of last year and has fluctuated significantly above 23 percent today. is coming
But let’s look at who would win if we went to the polls today, pausing also to consider how the preferences of Italians have changed in these two years of Maloney’s government.
Who goes up and who goes down in the election?
The following percentages are based on averages obtained from a cross-section of political surveys. Euromedia Research per Door to door And who made it. The political thermometer. But be careful: Euromedia Research’s measurements follow Cecilia Sala’s release and show a clear jump in voter confidence in the Brothers of Italy (31.5%), while the Political Thermometer survey was conducted between January 8 and 9, so before the journalist’s release from prison (29.1%).
Let’s look at the data from the new survey, comparing it with data from previous political polls:
- Fratelli d’Italia: 30.45% (+0.9%);
- Democratic Party: 23.7% (-0.1%);
- 5-star movement: 10.5% (-0.8%);
- Liga: 8,8% (=);
- Forza Italia: 8.7% (-0.3%);
- Green and Left Alliance: 5.9% (=);
- Share: 2.6% (-0.1%);
- Italia Viva: 2.1% (-0.4%);
- +Europe: 1,9% (-0,3%);
- We moderate: 0.9% (+0.1).
Percentages of Allies
Below are the selection percentages for various. Unity and comparisons with policies for the 2024 European elections and the renewal of parliament in 2022.
allJanuary 11 The situation is as follows:
- Center-right: 48.85%;
- Center left: 31.5%;
- 5 Star Movement: 10.5%;
- Third pole: 4.7%.
- Other: 3.6%
But the situation European elections of 8 and 9 June 2024:
- Center-right: 46.4%;
- Center left: 32.1%;
- 5 Star Movement: 9.8%;
- third pole: 7.1%;
- Other: 4.7%.
all Political elections 25 September 2022:
- Center-right: 43.8%;
- Center left: 26.1%;
- 5 Star Movement: 15.4%;
- third pole: 7.8%;
- Other: 6.9%.
Who will win the election today?
According to Supermedi Utrend/AggieFratelli d’Italia opened 2024 at 30% and then fell to 28.8% at the end of the year. 2025 begins with a sprint to Georgia Maloney’s party, which enjoys the Cecilia Sala effect, which averages 30.45%. Note that the Euromedia Research survey released after the journalist’s release gives FdI as high as 31.5%. The prime minister is still firmly at the helm of the country’s largest party.
gave Right wing coalition Moreover, with FDI traction, it will win elections again if we vote today and get it. 48.85%.
A fictitious Long field Left in the middle and containing Giuseppe Conte’s 5-star movement will, in fact, achieve more 42%. Weighing on the potential Pd-M5S alliance is the vertical collapse experienced by the Five Star Movement in recent months (from 15% at the beginning of January 2024 to 11% at the end of December for Youtrend/Agi). Now undermining the former Grillini was a long fraternal feud between founder/guarantor Beppe Grillo and political leader Giuseppe Conte.
The possible fall of the government today would not benefit anyone: numerically, the right wing could be back in the saddle but the League is still unknown, where the leadership of Matteo Salvini is no longer in armor. A fictitious Very wide field (Pd + M5S + third pole + far left) could reach a maximum of 46.7%, but the heterogeneity of the programs would risk an immediate rupture of the coalition.
Now all eyes are on the next one. Regional elections i Campania, Marche, Puglia, Tuscany, Aosta Valley e Veneto. De Luca Malonei’s battle for a third mandate in Campania continues, with the regional president seeking re-election and the prime minister appealing to the Constitutional Court to block any ambitions of the Campania “sheriff”. The Prime Minister’s move will also cripple Luca Zia in the Veneto, but it is part of a specific strategy: Change the size gave The League In Veneto, traditionally supported by the Northern League, to accommodate the costs of the FdI.
