Sunday, February 9, 2025
HomeTechnologyLa Nina has finally arrived! How will it change the weather?

La Nina has finally arrived! How will it change the weather?

The scientific community began to doubt its arrival, but La Niña occurred in January, even though it was initially predicted last summer. What will be the consequences in the world and in France?

NOAA acknowledges: “ We don’t know yet » Why did La Nina take so long? The cooling of this part of the Pacific waters therefore follows the neutral phase that followed El Niño. Episode the girlthe girl 2025 will be short and weak: according to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), there is a 59% chance that the period will end between February and April. La Niña will be followed by a new neutral phase (60% chance) that should occur between March and May.

Effects of La Niña on weather

So La Nina is expected to last only 3 to 4 months, will it be enough to affect the weather conditions in the respective regions of the world? Yes, for certain areas that are very sensitive to its influence: South America and especially North America. In the United States, the distribution of precipitation and temperature levels from October to December 2024 is already consistent with what can be expected from La Niña. A worsening drought in Southern California, resulting in increased fire risk, is one of the most likely outcomes of a La Niña phase.

But, as NOAA reminds us, La Niña is not ” That one of the players » Team and other factors are taken into consideration. How about France? The effect of the Enso cycle (the childthe childLa Niña) on Europe is still a debate among scientists: if there is an effect, which is not certain, it is weak. Météo France explains that “ Statistically, the effects of the La Nina phenomenon are more limited than those of the El Niño phenomenon in Europe, but also in the world. ».

In France, ” During a marked La Niña event, we typically see anticyclonic conditions in the Atlantic more frequently than usual. This could result in drier than normal conditions in Western Europe. ” But with such a weak and short-lived La Niña event, it’s very likely that its consequences will be barely felt in Europe, as will its effects on global climate.

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