Tuesday, February 11, 2025
HomeMarkets, positive week: The new year starts with central banks.

Markets, positive week: The new year starts with central banks.

It’s ending a week under a banner of buying for global financial markets, which saw Donald Trump’s White House inauguration and his first executive orders suggesting a less aggressive stance on tariffs than expected. In the background, but no less important, is the meeting with banks that saw the Bank of Japan meeting this octave, while next up will be the Federal Reserve and the ECB.

A word for central banks

gave European Central BankAfter deciding to cut interest rates four times in 2024, monetary policy easing will continue into the new year. At the Jan. 30 meeting, insiders expect a further cut in the cost of money, likely by as much as a quarter point, and analysts expect another cut at the March meeting. In addition, there will be a meeting at the end of January. Federal Reserve The move towards a decision to leave interest rates unchanged, after three consecutive cuts in the second half of 2024, brought the official rate to a range of 4.25-4.50%. For the decision of Bank of England We will have to wait until the first week of February. According to analysts, the drop in inflation will push the central bank on the path to easing, with an expected cut of 25 basis points. in Japan, Bank of Japan Raised interest rates to 0.50%, as widely expected, but forecast higher inflation and slower growth in the coming years. He also warned that he would raise rates further, to levels not seen in Japan since 1995.

Macroeconomic data

In January, In the Eurozonethe S&P Global Manufacturing PMI index rose to 46.1 points, an eight-month high from 45.1 points last December. On the other hand, the PMI index for the services sector fell to 51.4 points from 51.6 points in December.
i USAActivity in the US services sector continued to pick up in January. The preliminary reading of the PMI services index compiled by Markit fell to 52.8, the lowest in eight months, from 56.8 in December, when it hit a 33-month high, estimated at 56.5. . So the figure remained at a level associated with expansion, ie above 50 points; From July 2022 to January 2023 it was in contraction. As for the US manufacturing activity index, it rose in January, indicating that the sector is now expanding. The data – compiled by IHS Markit – measured a trend increase to 50.2 points in the preliminary reading, after 47.7 in December. Expectations were 49.7 points.

Dollar appreciation and impact on gold

The US dollar continued its upward trend in December despite the Federal Reserve’s 25% rate cut. gave The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) raised its projections for US GDP growth and inflation for 2025, and the Fed’s dot plot highlights expectations for just two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025. The greenback, explains Michael Luke, group CIO and co-CEO of asset management at Union Banker Private (UBP), will continue to have a high profile. In the first quarter, due to trade and tariff uncertainty, which will weigh heavily on other major currencies.
In contrast, the Swiss franc weakened slightly after the SNB (Swiss National Bank) cut rates by 50 percent, bringing the deposit rate to 0.50 percent.
L’oro A slight decline was recorded in December, reaching a level of around $2,600 per ounce. Silver also fell to around $30 an ounce. “We note that central bank gold purchases have picked up again in recent months, with China buying for the second month in a row. A sharp rise in 30-year bond yields is also constructive for both gold and silver, Because it shows concerns about inflation and debt sustainability,” the expert stressed.

Weekly performance of stock markets

The week’s gains were crowned by the Paris market, which rose nearly 3.8% at home. The Frankfurt Stock Exchange followed with +3.58% and the London Stock Exchange +1.3%. Along the same lines, Milan +1.06% and Madrid +1.14%. The conclusion also prepares for an uphill battle for the Wall Street stock market ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

The best and worst in Piazza Affari

Banking risk is the main character at Piazza Affari: MPS, the worst of the main basket, with a drop of 8% after the sovereign public offering launched on Mediobanca which jumped above the FTSE MIB with +9% . Among other banks, Unicadet rose (+4%) after CEO Andrea Orcel spoke about the potential benefits of a merger with Banco BPM and his willingness to clarify with the German government how to proceed with the action on Commerzbank. Came back to talk. Among the best stocks of the week, Buzzi’s rally is up more than eight percentage points. Luxury is next, represented by stocks Moncler +7% and Brunello Cucinelli +6%. On the downside, the energy sector loses ground, with Eni -3%, Enel 6% and Saipem -5%.

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