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Central Banks Week: BOJ Expects Move

A week of shopping has been reserved for global financial markets, with Donald Trump settling on the White House and his first executive orders that suggest a less aggressive approach to expectations regarding duties. Now investors are focused on it. Central Bank.

The Bank of Japan anticipates this move

in Japan, Bank of Japan It raised interest rates to 0.50 percent, as widely expected, but forecast inflation and slower growth in the coming years. In addition, he warned that he would further raise rates to levels not seen in Japan since 1995.

The ECB is expected to cut new rates

European Central BankAfter four cuts in interest rates in 2024, it continues to hold sway over monetary policy in the new year. At a meeting on Thursday, January 30, insiders are expected to further cut the cost of money, in all likelihood by a quarter of that point, and analysts include a second cut at the March meeting. is

“Inflation is not seen as an issue at the moment, but more optimism on growth after recent SME data,” highlights analysts from Banka’s MPs’ Market Strategy Team. can be found.”

Last week’s comments were also released President Christine Lagarde They suggest that the 25 basis point rate is clear and that the locking cycle will continue.

Feed towards a break in the cut cycle

It will also have its meeting at the end of January Federal Reserve The move towards a decision to leave interest rates unchanged led to the official rate in the 4.25-4.50% range after three consecutive cuts in the second half of 2024.

Investors, who have been anticipating a break in the Fed rate-cutting cycle for some time now, will be watching the governor’s press conference with particular attention. Jerome PowellItalian on Wednesday at 20.30, to steal a hint on the possible duration of this break.

The Bank of England closes the circle in February

For the decision of Bank of England We will have to wait for the first week of February. According to analysts, the drop in inflation will push the central bank towards the tightening road, with an expected cut of 25 basis points.

In Britain, he explains Mark Dowding, Fixed Income CIO DRBC BlueBthe Gilts production offered little relief to Rachel Reeves last week, with a curveball according to Treasury Movement. Weakening labor market demand and deteriorating sentiment suggest that the British economy is currently being hit by stagnation, with GDP figures likely to show 0% growth in the final quarter of the year. will do An increase in financing costs has led to an increase in public debt, as tax policy is now largely bound by the trend of bond returns.

In context, the expert points out, “It seems that the Bank of England will take advantage of every possible opportunity to cut interest rates and, in this context, it is expected that they will cut rates to 4.5% in February. However, we believe that inflation will remain around 3.5-4.0%, which means that Bailey will hardly be able to cut rates much further.

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