On the occasion of February 24, on the occasion Ukraine’s massive third anniversaryVladimir Putin will announce Russia’s victory. Unilaterally, as the four had affiliated with the four areas of Ukraine (not completely) the Federation. The speech from the nation will be routinely propaganda in Magna.
The reality of things he is Moscow has no longer desire to continue and continue A war that has not been able to win initially in two weeks, and that has been wearing about the level of material and reputation for three years. But here is the unexpected help: Trump’s America aligns himself with Kremlin’s rhetoric And it seems that they turn the shoulders to Ukraine. But in the fog of war, which will continue in other forms, nothing never happens.
Because Trump and Putin want to stop war in Ukraine
Although delegates from Washington and Moscow prepare for negotiations with unpublished speed, it is good to remember one of the basic principles of international diplomacy. The actual contracts are never disclosed and is not publicized Before they are secret. For now we have just observed it Two heads of state kate walk in love with himMore than anyone’s expression. On behalf of the United States, Donald Trump can assume that ending the war will increase its global dignity and will probably be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. They gave this to Barack Obama, however, because not for that. Needed Keep election promisesIncreasing internal American welfare, is very good with the will of American devices to weaken many fronts around the world.
On the Russian side, Vladimir Putin has been accustomed to the crisis faults for twenty years. As a figure, his first target is that he has believed Russia brought back to the level of greatness Such as the future of Europe directly interacting with the World Hegemone, namely the United States. But it is Solo A part of the truth. Russian state economy and budget have long been subjected to overwhelming pressure and the president knows that war has become Financially unstable. With, do not mention the social aspect Ethnic minorities of the peripheral republic Who paid the highest blood price for Moscow and threatened to start the mischief by foreign actors. At the practical level, the most important purpose of the Kremlin is to get privileges from the United States on the front of sanctions.
The state of the Russian economy worsens
In addition to basic speeches Strength And on Imperial projectionThose who come first for Moscow and deep Russians, the Kremlin can no longer ignore three major alarm signals.
- Crisis on the gazepramWhich represented 10 % of state income before the lack of goods to Europe. Record losses and parallel billionaire investment in the Siberian and Asian Gesira network with the Chinese, compromised with “cows” from which Moscow made fun of the money.
- Bank crisis: Russian state banks hesitate to purchase the country’s sovereignty, which raises doubts about Moscow’s ability to provide its budget deficit at a time when sanctions be banned. Movement is restricted in international markets.
- New secondary finesAt the end of the mandate, the Biden was imposed by the administration, their voices have begun to hear. These countries, especially the Central Asian but also European, are also defaulted, lending themselves as a bank to prevent trade blocks developed by the United States. Consequent: In the Arctic, Russia’s liquid natural gas system is put into critical conditions and many burdens of Russian oil have been invented.
To continue the war financing, the Kremlin has Attracted to the savings of the Russian National Welfare Fund. The disappointing move, which does not appear to be the palm. Federation is the available liquidity February 2022 declined to 60 %Although it is difficult to estimate the correct number, the Russian Ministry of Economy has stopped access to relevant data. Further indicators, other than other things, which confirm Moscow’s difficulty. Does not want to create a Kremlin institution The last instance sceneIe officially open China’s financial support. Beijing is already filling Russian grain reserves and tanks at a discounted price, which is paid in installments and yuan. However, the People’s Republic is determined at the same time Avoid the outbreak of a great trade war with the United States and the European UnionUnder the penalty for reducing the surplus, with which he is providing financial support to the superpower.
Agreements are already clear to the United States and Russia, which are less for us
According to the forecast, Moscow’s financial difficulties can only deteriorate, as long as no Bruceka’s cancellation of US sanctions Do not breathe the Kremlin a little. For example, a portion of foreign loans and returning to old Western consumers to sell more hydrogen carbon. This is exactly What is expected to get Putin from TrumpWhile seeking peace and the image of winning the war on earth. The Russian president also knows that the conflict with Ukraine will continue for a long time, with such threats that heavy economic conditions will promote popular disorders. Up to the rebellionAs Russian history teaches us. So ridiculous trumps will pull betterSo that Russia is in a state that cannot be allowed to make too much application.
In fact, there are talks between the United States and Russia Began in December. Secretly, how important is it in the form of an ongoing dispute. The will of American devices, which is more counted than the president, is to contract Ukraine’s reconstruction and the protection of European states, yes, but also to foreign actors. Then be able to say: Ukraine is not an extremely European contractWe can avoid dealing with it. Complex and dangerous speech, of course, but Russia will refrain from eliminating China’s hunting and can also recognize itself in the European market at the same time. Barrel fish Be able to play on both East and Western fronts. Not as bad as a strategy.
