(Teleborsa) – The large advanced economies, after experiencing a sharp rebound from the most acute phase of the pandemic, are preparing to experience a growth still “at levels above the trend, but in a phase of moderation“. This is what the monthly update of the OECD economic superindex (the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) indicates for the month of August. This indicator was designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity with respect to the trend.
For the month of August, the superindex, which anticipates future economic trends by 6-9 months, stood at 101 points from 100.9 in July in thearea OECD. The indicator of theEurozone 101.1 points from the previous 101. Among the EU member countries, in France the indicator rises to 99.4 from 99.2 points, while in Germany it rises to 102 from 101.9. In Italy, the leading indicator increased to 102.2 from 102 points.
The latest composite leading indicators (CLI, synthetically called superindex) indicate moderate growth – at levels above the trend – in Canada, the entire euro area and the United Kingdom. In France, the CLI indicates a moderation in the pace of growth and remains below trend levels. In contrast, the CLIs of United States and Japan they now point to stable growth, above trend levels.
Among the major emerging economies, CLI for Russia and China indicate a steady increase in growth above trend levels. The CLI forIndia remains below the trend but continues to report stable growth, while in Brazil the CLI continues to anticipate a slowdown in growth compared to the trend level.
“Despite the gradual lifting of Covid-19 containment measures in some countries and the progress of vaccination campaigns, persistent uncertainties could lead to higher than usual fluctuations in CLIs and their components – notes the OECD – Therefore, CLIs they should be interpreted carefully and their magnitude should be seen as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than a measure of the degree of growth in economic activity ”.